Risk and Politics

In the early 1990s the political literature and the plans of leading states were full of intentions of introducing military methods of defense of communication and energy projects. Important documents relating to security issues were aimed at containing threats and risks and underlay the establishment of global politics, including such elements as space, basing, development of more modern types of weapon.

Some experts who were not trained in risk analysis considered the opportunities for defense of systemic facilities rather pessimistically, with global increase of destructivism and extremism. However, the issue was, nevertheless, resolved with the help of such approaches that are related to a fundamental change of the security ideology and even the new security outlook.

Two years ago it seemed that the intentions of the United States, Great Britain, and as it has become known recently, France, relating to the production and transportation of oil from Iraq, are impossible in the conditions of chaos. Nevertheless, the big Iraqi oil appeared on the international market. In addition, though the Iraqi oil is used “independently” from the traditional Arab export as a source that supplies the global demand until the stage of creation of controllable thermonuclear processes.

Other oil projects are implemented as well along with the projects of use of the Iraqi oil. The corresponding security systems suppose implementation of these projects at any level of threats and risks, including subversion and terrorism. In other words, the outputs of implementation of these programs “cover” all the possible risks and related costs.

In practice, these approaches have shown that the Western community and its partners in different regions have entered into a new stage of global politics and economy, while the geoeconomy has acquired quite new parameters and lines of efficiency. For the regions and the regional policy it means ignoring any risk and threat and implementation of any policy that presupposes crises and military conflicts of different intensity.

The following circumstance may have the right to be considered – the global economic crisis is one of the means of adaptation of the global social, political and economic system to the new level of risks and threats. The Western community and the rest of the world has no way out of this global chaos except for adopting principles towards risks and threats. For the majority of region’s states the hopes for stability and security guarantees have lost importance as a condition of successful economic functioning of the West. In other words, by allowing any nature of chaos and brutality all these phenomena and processes will be successfully overcome by the global centers of force.

In this situation all the controllable, badly controllable and non-controllable crisis developments and conflicts as tools of global policy are to be expected. A world security zone has been established. The global definition is as follows – leaders, partners, raw materials. Everyone gets theirs. However, the leaders also have problems so NATO summit in Chicago in May presupposes new formats and logic of international relations.