Which is the Next- Iran or Turkey?

Despite the fact that Bashar Asad is still resisting, it is evident that the solution under the current almost total isolation, is near. The Aeroflot has already announced that it will stop flights to Damask from August 6, and this may be the deadline for some operations.

In the context of the Syrian events, as a rule, Armenia is discussing the issue on the Armenians living in Syria. The society is protesting that the state does not take up necessary measures to receive Syrian-Armenians, and the ministry of Diaspora says they don’t want to come to Armenia. Besides, Radio Liberty reports a Syrian-Armenian saying everything is all right in Aleppo and the Syrian protesters promise not to touch Armenians.

However, the possible geopolitical implications of the Syrian crisis for Armenia are ignored. The Russian media have claimed that the next will be Iran. Although, judging by the statements of Erdogan it is not excluded that Turkey will be the next. And Armenia will have to prepare for the fact that such events will occur in the neighboring state. And if in case of Syria, even Georgia, Armenia could remain neutral, it is unlikely to succeed if the problem starts with Iran. Tehran will clearly require a clear position.

Russian politicians called on Armenia in Yerevan to toughen its position on the Syrian issue and express against foreign intervention. It was noted that the West has already oriented towards Iran and is ready to sacrifice Karabakh for Azerbaijan to become a foothold.

Mikhail Aleksandrov noted that “the U.S., the European Union and their allies support Azerbaijan in the Karabakh issue”. Andrey Areshev noted that Russia’s position on this issue is cardinally different from the position of the Western forces. “Russia will never benefit from destabilization of situation in the South Caucasus. In the meantime, the actions of the West take the Southern Caucasus to the same deck with the so called Big Near East, where violence boils”, he said.

Actually, Armenia will have to choose between the West and Russia even relating to the Syrian issue. Moscow has already been applying its traditional blackmail measures, trying to convince Armenia that in case it supports the West, its security will be threatened. Armenia has been neutral so far, but neutrality may be interpreted by everyone in their own favor. Especially if the neutrality implies not the conception of its own interests, but the principle of “waiting to see where the thread will be cut, maybe we will be saved”.