No doubt the anti-Iranian actions in Azerbaijan are motivated by silliness but silliness, if it is consistent, also leads to forming concepts not only in foreign policy making but also public consciousness.
Azerbaijan is obviously in a state of fragmentation of public goals and priorities which may lead to decay of state but first it will question the consistency of the ruling regime with the ethnic identity of the population living in this territory.
To be more specific, the people of this territory will face the question whether the ruling regime belongs to the given ethnicity. The government is on the quest for ethnic identity and alongside it the corresponding society is seeking the same. This search will continue for a long time along with the fragmentation of what is referred to as the Azerbaijani Republic.
It turned out that the anti-Armenian sentiment and action is not enough for self-consciousness. The anti-Armenian sentiment is just an external motive for efforts for solidarity. However, the anti-Armenian sentiment cannot form a nation whereas anti-Iranian sentiment will do.
The authorities of the Azerbaijani Republic are not thinking about an Iranian Azerbaijan, most probably they fear even certain contacts since the goals are different. The ruling elite consisting of 90 families pursue wealth and comfortable existence. Even intensive procurement of air defense systems is caused by fear and the wish to protect themselves and their families.
The anti-Iranian sentiment of the elite and the public is aimed at extending distance with Iran and indigenous ethnicities, not defense of their non-existent fellow tribesmen in Iran. Baku hides behind the anti-Iranian sentiment from the powerful surge of the Islamic movement which will sooner or later devour the society which is in a state of deep profanation.
Alongside these goals new myths are required as well which are born on the basis of unchecked falsification. The fruits of systemic falsification partook of Azerbaijan and Georgia and they have not learned any lesson from the mistakes of the former and present generations.
It should be noted that there is not a single interested state except for Israel which wishes separation of Iran which will lead to a geopolitical catastrophe that will be beyond the United States, Turkey, the UK, Russia, Saudi, Pakistan and other countries. All the U.S. plans presuppose preservation of the integrity of the Iranian state, even in the initiatives of the “friends of Israel” which count many among policy makers.
In a certain sense, Israel fears cataclysms in Iran, especially among young and intellectual politicians and not only. Azerbaijan still has not received a significant signal of a “positive” outcome of developments in Iran and the region. Cooperation with Israel was a game with Azerbaijan but Israel views Azerbaijan as a polygon for provocations to Iran, not as a partner.
Cooperation with Israel has deepened the isolation of Azerbaijan, first of all in the Arab and Islamic world. It is possible that after disappointment with those of “common faith” Azerbaijan has remembered about the Tat-Jewish origin of their elite, as well as the society in general, if it is allowed in this case to distinguish the society and the people.
It is difficult to tell because Baku’s incentives are rational and meaningful or everything is more primitive, and Azerbaijan, caught in a deadlock, is trying to squeeze use from the implementation of the order of the United States and its partners. What is better for Azerbaijan? A meaningful policy or or an intuitive policy? Perhaps the irrational behavior is a means of continuation of the fight for national ideals, which is the best way out of this political deadlock.