Russia Will Try to Eliminate the Armenian Factor

    • Interview - 01 August 2017, 19:03
Our interlocutor is publicist, political scientist Anush Sedrakyan

Q–The US has toughened sanctions against Russia, and in retaliation Russia is set out to impose sanctions on the US, in particular, that the number of US diplomatic staff in Russia should not exceed 455. What can this lead to, and what dangers may arise for Armenia?

Sedrakyan-As I see it, America’s sanctions mainly target the criminal-oligarchic system of Russia, which will also deal a blow to the interests of Armenia's criminal-oligarchic system, because we already know,neither Armenia’s nor Russia’s economy and market dynamics have anything in common with free market rules. Therefore, the oligarchs will try to counterbalancethis situation by reimbursing their incurred damages and potential losses at the expense of the people.This is the first issue, but the most mind-boggling fact that we are concerned withis the choice of the defense system, because we understand that these sanctions are obviously aimed at the elimination of Russia's economic levers that support and feed Russia's military industry.

That is to say, Russia will sell its weapons and will not be able to produce new weapons.We understand that Russia is a gas filling station in a form ofthe state. And now those sanctions come to deprive the gas station of its scope of influence. I can state that as a result of these sanctions, the Armenian economy will simply not get impaired, as the sanctions target technological, gas and other spheres, which have already reached the highest level of consumption, depreciation and destabilization in the Armenian economy. Let's hope that along with the abolition of southern and northern projects as a result of sanctions, Armenia will finally understand its dire need for alternative energy routes.There is another question here: would Russia opt for losing one of its so-called gas customers, which marvelously pays the highest price possible.Orwould Russia opt forlosing Armenia and not apply harsh measures to keep Armenia in gas and military prison.

There are many levers in the hands of Russia, which are more politicalthan economic in nature. Therefore, in the coming months in Armenia, especially after the summer heat, vague political realities are anticipated to strike Armenia, such as the activation of the Russian political wing in Armenia, and, of course, tension on the Karabakh front, because these are Russia's proven and repeatedly used levers.

Q - What can Armenia expect from the Russian-Turkish rapprochement, especially when we see that Moscow arms not only Azerbaijan, but also supplies batches of weaponry to Turkey?

Sedrakyan-When there are obvious political realities in Armenia—I mean the conventionalities of the political system,whichhave been the pillars of the political landscapefor decades—that are now self-destructing from inside, we witness alarming inertia and inaction of our press, television, and our analysts,whoshun themselves from covering them as a top priority.What is the essence of Armenia's debunked "military-patriotic", "Dashnak patriotism" myths,that endlessly circulate in the public, that allude to Russia allegedly protecting Armenia from Turkey, forgetting that Russia does not support Armenia through amilitary base, but simply maintains the last border of the Soviet Union,because the Armenian border is the last missile barrier on the USSR and NATO border?But now, when Turkey has already voiced its intention to abolish its EU membership bid, revealing its intentions to leave NATO, it becomes clear that the border, in the shape of the military base, soon will notbehandy for Russia.

And this means that the population of mono-ethnic and anti-Turkish Armenia will be surplus. Not surprisingly, in this context they speak about making Russian a state language, about the failure of the EEU budget, about theintroduction of the single currency.

That is, Russia will no longer need the Armenian factor. As soon as they perceive the unworthiness of the Armenian factor, they will immediately resort to the elimination of that Armenian factor. It is a historical precedent. Russia uses the Armenian factor and solves its political issues at the expense of that factor. Now, in the context of the great defeat in the political war with the West, we are again convinced that during the historical development, we have made a great mistake, when subjected to the blackmail of September 3 because if we did not succumb to the blackmail at that time and manifested resistance to that resisted that blackmail, we would have had twice as little losses and twice as many perspectives.

Q - Recently, Putin ratified the agreement between the Armenian and Russianjoint troops. What dangers do you see?

Sedrakyan– This already obviously fits in my context. It solves the problem of neutralizing Armenia's sovereignty. I have repeatedly said and repeatthat the Russians will target three things: the language, the dram (Armenian currency), and the army. These are the three pillars of formal sovereignty. And they will do so in the most hideous and obnoxious ways possible. That's Russia's policy. They cannot be blamed for it; every state pursues its interests. And why Armenia does not pursue its interests, this is the problem.

Q - In other words, Armenia does not pursue its interests.

Sedrakyan- Of course, Armenia does not pursue them, because if Armenia had pursued its interests, it would have long become a country that not only uses solar energy for its best interest, but also appears to be a solar panel manufacturing country, a country that does not shut its airspace, but a country that uses its airspace forglobal transit, a country that is not tightly“gas-addicted”but rather a country that produces the leading technology.

 I want to point out that in global trends it is already obvious that Western Europe plans to reject oil and gas consumption until 2025-2040. Cars are becomingelectric; production heavily relies on electricity, in order to prevent the environmental crisis. In other words, it is understandable that it is in the most ferociousway to drive out Russia and those Muslim countries that are considered the world's oil donors. It is clear that theseretrograde countries will fight against civilization,not for life but for death. And why we are at the moment in the retrospective camp, regardless of our Christian past, regardless of the wealth of our Armenian human resources, is a secret shrouded with mystery for me. They say that the Armenian mind is good, but our last reason comes after the ruins and the demise.

Translation from Armenian by Abel Simonyan