God Forbid A Worse Thing…

Interview with Dr. Zoya Tadevosyan, member of the Armenian National Congress

The authorities confirmed the rumors that they are negotiating the gas price with Russia. What consequences can the growth of gas price bring about?

As a rule, it is a crisis generating factor. It has been that way since the years of the “Great Depression” and this trend is present up to now. So, since the crisis is still underway, the price increase will deepen it even more because the enterprises using gas will increase prices on their products so consumption will drop which will cause production cut. If products are produced for export, it will lead to decline in export. Then, as a result of the gas price increase the actual income of large groups of the society will decrease.

Is there a political context?

Of course, there is. During 20 years of political independence, the Republic of Armenia has been more dependent than ever. The danger is that Russia supplies 100% of our gas, 22% of import, holds 30% of assets of commercial banks, 70% of insurance companies. Russia is the second creditor after the International Development Partnerships. The loan support by Russia has reached 20.5%. According to rough assessments, in our country Russian companies have acquired assets with a value of 2.9 billion, 35.1% of which has been invested in infrastructures. This is not just statistics but this makes it clear that Russia pursues not only global economic but also geopolitical interests in Armenia.

Why do they boost the gas price on the eve of presidential elections?

Russia intends to refill its treasury by creating “crisis funds” at the expense of vassal countries, while we can connect this step with the elections in Armenia only after we learn the name of the Russian presidential candidate. Let’s wait till September, though we can guess now who the candidate is. God forbid a worse thing.

May all this lead to a social rebellion?

Rebellion is an alien category for the social, economic and political situation of Armenia. Protests are possible but revolts never. Protests will be held by those who don’t deal with the gas market. I don’t think everyone will take to the street demanding the government’s resignation.

Is the Congress ready to lead the social rebellion because the Congress seems passive recently and there are concerns that the ANC will limit its activities to those in the parliament?

Since I rule out a rebellion, I think all the other concerns are inappropriate.

Why are people defecting from the Congress?

The reason for the recent developments in the Congress is the tactics of the ANC to turn the PAP opposition. PAP became an alternative or reserve opposition. Time will show.

There have been opinions that the Congress is collapsing.

If Congress does not start the process on the president’s resignation, I’m afraid these opinions will come true.