“Bogey” Of Hot War

Interview with Ashot Manucharyan, member of Karabakh Committee

Mr. Manucharyan, rumors on possible resumption of hostilities have become quite frequent. It is mostly stated that there will be no large-scale war. Do you think the resumption of war is possible?

Military actions and signs of war have increased in the last months. By the way, the information on the possible resumption of hostilities was published by not only the Armenian and Azerbaijani press, but also Russian, American and European. We also need to answer what the objective was and who benefited. It may seem from outside that the escalation really recalls war. But there have already been two sober opinions: ex-minister of defense of Armenia Vagharshak Harutiunyan said there are no signs of war because the balance of forces does not allow for it. I can add that the possibility of war has sharply decreased because the level of arming of the parties has increased (it is different when you get armed with rifles or with rockets) and if reached a peak, and the parties acquired nuclear weapons, then the probability of war would reach zero because the nuclear states don’t wage wars on each other.

The second sober opinion was expressed by Wafa Guluzade, Azeri political scientist, who noted that the Russian tanks are located 400 km from Baku, hence pointing out to the nail of the geopolitical situation in the region.

So the problem lies in Russia?

The geopolitical fight has intensified in the region. Small countries in the region also have something to share with each other, they threaten each other, but we lost the geopolitical leverage a long time ago. We cannot decide any question of peace or war, and the dictate of superpowers is that the war must not start. Rumors also came about a new stage of bargains.

Yet, there are many victims in the result of Azerbaijani diversions.

Superpowers don’t take interest in minor issues. Several hundred thousand of lives in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Armenia – all this is trifles when geopolitical issues are solved. This is the culture of today’s policy and we need to understand that we need to care for the life of our soldiers and we need to be literate to prevent such situations.

We know what war threats bring to Armenia. We did not know for a long time its consequences in Azerbaijan. But recent developments indicated the severe panic in Azerbaijan, information appeared that Armenian groups broke through the defense and were moving inland and the official agencies were forced to reject this information.

Relations between Russia and the U.S. also got worse, including in our region. Russia tried to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict according to its understanding. In fact, for Russia the only solution of the conflict is the principles of Madrid and the introduction of troops, only Russian. Any other move will cause a strong reaction in Moscow.

The dropping oil prices damage the economy of Russia torn by serious internal problems. In these circumstances, Russia only needs a victory like the one in Georgia in 2008. So think the U.S. trying to take up their own process that would keep the parties in an entirely different mood.

There is a global war, and the superpowers use in it the “bogey” of the hot war to compel the parties to the right decisions.

Wars are not only hot but also alternative. This is disruption and obligation to surrender without a fight out of fear. This method is used now, Americans are using the Chinese method who don’t get engage in war but achieve their goals. And now, Armenia is coerced into obedience.