(The consequences of the 2008-2012 period)
In the framework of this problem it is necessary to scrutinize the events, processes and trends of the past few years. The foreign policy is closely related to domestic issues, and the nature and style of the current political leaders in Armenia are reflected in the foreign policy.
Formally, nothing significant took place in the 2008-2012 foreign policy. There are mostly changes and editing in the agreements and relations with Russia and CSTO. There have been no visible movements in the relations with the West and the Near East, there were no new claims by the president and the foreign minister in foreign and security affairs.
At the same time, important things took place in the relations with Russia, which indicated the solution of some problems, unsaid things and some lack of confidence.
Russia, inspired by the victory against Georgia, decided that it is time to boost pressure on the South Caucasus and demonstrate its ability to influence Armenia and Azerbaijan. The inadequate “Russian project” of return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan was developed on the Russian president’s porch, which would result in not only the extermination of the population of Karabakh but also the loss of historical prospects of the Armenian nation.
This Russian plan was significantly aligned and related to Turkey’s political ambitions which Russia tried to satisfy at the expense of the Armenian interests.
In the result of the emergence of the third force, the intensifying military presence of the United States in the Black Sea – Caucasian region Russia and Turkey tried to set up an alliance. This alliance is virtual rather but in this case serious threats occur to Armenia.
Even in case of interim agreements between Russia and Turkey on division of functions and areas of influence in Eurasia no place is left for Armenia in the geopolitical arrangement. However, there can be no such agreements in case of modern strategies and interests.
From the very beginning of the “Russian project” the Armenian political leadership understood that they could not agree to that but hoped that this problem would expire without spoiling the relations with Russia. Eventually it did but by another scenario.
The Armenian leadership had to give up on the “Russian project”, at least at this stage. Russia became convinced that this project is not realistic and decided to refrain from it because in case of any outcome the hatred of the Armenian people towards Russia would be left. This is not part of Russia’s tactical and strategic plans.
The problem is that the behavior of the Armenian leadership and many social groups sent long and convincing signals on openness to capitulation and giving up on the Armenian identity of Karabakh.
The Armenian political leadership became convinced that Armenia and NKR, including the Karabakh leadership, will not accept such a project on national catastrophe in any case.
However, the problem is not even Russia’s attempts. The problem is that the Armenian leadership believes it is necessary to hand to the enemy the lowlands of Karabakh and make other concessions. There is greater threat in this than the adventures of the Russian politicians.
Russia has created a metastatic propaganda network, bought a significant number of experts, reporters and other rubbish. However, the Russian propaganda is ridiculous because it is empty and nobody pays attention to it. Russia has lost and is entering into a fight with the United States.
What is awaiting Armenia where the Russian base, as well as 8 Iskander rockets are located? Armenia has become a NATO target.
At the same time, the 2008-2012 period revealed the deep contradictions between Turkey and the United States, Turkey and Russia. Turkey and Russia had serious contradictions on regional political issues and are not willing for compromise over primary and secondary issues in the Caucasus, Crimea, Central Asia and Povolzhie.
Turkey and Russia have wasted too many economic and political resources to strengthen their foothold in these regions, to make compromises, even in case of shared interests over several issues.
Armenia and the Diaspora became convinced that in the visible future there is no expectation that a Russian-Turkish alliance will be created. It should be stated that the Americans and the Europeans became convinced too which are starting to treat Turkey with consideration of the factor of intensifying isolation.
There is no doubt that Armenia is not interested in a confrontation between Russia and Turkey, which will certainly lead to complication of Armenia’s positions. At the same time, the creation of a Turkish-Russian alliance does not meet Armenia’s interests.
After the scandal of the downed Russian airplane Turkey hurried to restore relations with Russia because it was losing income. It was normal for Turkey. This is going to be the case. Russia hurried to prevent any resolution on Turkey’s non-attack on Armenia because this idea was part of the plans of the United States and the United Kingdom.
As always, Russia benefited from Turkey’s situation and demanded its “reference” to the Karabakh issue. Russia continues to hinder the Armenian-Turkish normalization, and pushing Armenia into a dead end.
However, this situation has two sides. Turkey will do what is in its interests and will start ignoring the interests of Russia and especially Azerbaijan.
We talked about the 2008-2012 stage to make it clear when the conditions of a new war in the Caucasus started occurring. Did the war take place in April 2016 or is it still ahead?