Armen Sargsyan Closes Triangle: Serzh Sargsyan's Decision

    • Comments - 19 January 2018, 01:27
After the meeting of the Executive Body of the Republican Party spokesperson Edward Sharmazanov announced that Serzh Sargsyan will publish the name of the fourth president of Armenia the next day. Sharmazanov hinted that the next president will be the Armenian ambassador in the UK Armen Sargsyan whose name was discussed openly after Serzh Sargsyan listed all the things that he imagines the next president should have. It was clear than that all other possible candidates considered earlier were automatically checked out.

Gagik Tsarukyan has assumed a special role in the issue of the fourth president of Armenia. The point is that the Republican majority in parliament cannot elect a president in the first round if at least 14 votes of Tsarukyan Alliance do not join to vote like the Republican-ARF coalition. And if the president is not elected in the first round, it will hit not so much the Republican Party as Armen Sargsyan. Apparently, Sargsyan knows how his at least moral impact will weaken with an even weaker position of the institution of the president if he fails to become president in the first round or provided the vast majority, as Serzh Sargsyan put it.

And Armen Sargsyan believes in reputation more than anything, therefore Serzh Sargsyan must tell Armen Sargsyan that Gagik Tsarukyan agrees.

And what does Tsarukyan expect in return for his consent. Does he expect his share of dividends that Armen Sargsyan’s international connections and reputation will bring or does Tsarkyan enjoy those through his good partnership and friendship with sheiks? After all, the relations of sheiks with the UK where Armen Sargsyan performed his mission of Armenian ambassador for years is not a secret.

Thus, it may seem strange but it is even more urgent to find out how Serzh Sargsyan benefits. At first sight, it is the position of prime minister, and the public discerns this in every word he utters, in every step he takes.

Meanwhile, an interesting situation has occurred, with an interesting geopolitical structure. A person who formed as a politician in the United Kingdom becomes the fourth president of Armenia. The current prime minister, at least so far, is a person who formed in the Russian environment and moved to Armenia. The prime minister is the head of state, the president appears to be a symbolic position but it would not be appropriate to consider Armen Sargsyan a symbol and think that he is leaving is international activities to become a symbol in Armenia for 7 years.

At the same time, the ministry of defense becomes a de facto pole in the Armenian government. Serzh Sargsyan has assigned the MoD the program of modernization of the army which is going to be the military and political roadmap of Armenia in internal and external relations. The United States is active, its ambassador regularly visits Viggen Sargsyan in times when Sargsyan is targeted by public criticism. The United States promises support to the program of modernization of the army, obviously considering it as a key component of the regional strategy.

Hence, a triangle of three geopolitical centers – London, Moscow, Washington – forms in the parliamentary governance model of Armenia, the three key anchors of the multi-pole government if Karen Karapetyan stays in the office of prime minister and Vigen Sargsyan remains minister of defense after April.

This triangle is interesting for Armenia. Will Serzh Sargsyan go for breaking the triangle in April or will Sargsyan prefer a status which will de jure be outside the government but will de facto be higher and more respectable? It is the position of chair of the Republican Party, the role of coordinator of this Armenia-based geopolitical triangle.

The position of foreign minister remains open but this is for the next round when it becomes clear what is happening to Armenia in the triangle. After that it will be clear what foreign affairs Armenia is going to have.