In fact, Israel has arrived at the line of establishment of its borders in the context of the new situation in the Near East. Donald Trump has promised “revolutionary” solutions in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
A lasting solution of a lasting conflict takes two things: escalation when it is possible to draw the border with “fire” and international consensus when new borders are ratified. The establishment of the new borders of Israel will take a revision of the Treaty of Lausanne signed 100 years ago.
The escalation started when Trump decided to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. For his part, the Turkish president Erdogan has repeated with alarm several times about a revision of the Treaty of Lausanne. The United States just needs to agree with Russia, which will guarantee a process without complications and separate agreements.
Interestingly, Israel directs arrows at Turkey. Last weekend the Israeli minister of defense Avigdor Lieberman called for a review of economic relations with Turkey. In particular, Lieberman said against the construction of a gas pipeline running from Israel to Europe via Turkey.
He also warned that the situation when the Israeli army has to answer rockets fired from the Gaza area daily will not continue.
Ping-pong will have to stop and the next week will indicate what turn the developments will take, Lieberman said, noting that Hamas which is actively supported by Turkey will have to follow attentively what will happen over the next week and Israel is ready for any scenario.
What will happen this week? What is Lieberman expecting? What is Russia’s role which was helped by the United States to prevent a planned attack in Saint Petersburg?
A lot of experts, analyzing Russia’s aggressive policy in the Near East, suggest that Russia wants to participate in “new Yalta” but “Yalta” determined Europe’s borders after WWII. These borders and arrangement changed after the collapse of the USSR and it was defined by agreements other than “Yalta”.
As to the Near East, Turkey’s borders with the former Ottoman colonies were determined by the Treaty of Lausanne signed in 1923. Russia and the United States did not sign the Treaty of Lausanne and now Russia seems likely to participate in “new Lausanne”. By the way, the Treaty of Lausanne defines Turkey’s borders with all neighbors except the Soviet Union. These borders were defined by a separate agreement between Turkey and Russia.
New “Lausanne” will concern not Europe but the Near East, including Turkey. Under the existing agreement Turkey has been able to prevent emergence of an “Armenian community” in Turkey. Will the borders of Turkey and Armenia be revised in the framework of new Lausanne?