On Armenian-Georgian Watch
After the meeting in Tbilisi the foreign ministers of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey signed a document on deepening their cooperation. The defense partnership format is not something new for these three countries. The three ministers meet regularly. There were meetings in Turkey, Azerbaijan, as well as Nakhijevan.
The format of cooperation of the defense ministers is, perhaps, one of the formats which are apparently initiated by Baku and Ankara, to take Tbilisi in their pincers.
They have taken Yerevan in the “transport” pincers, in a double blockade. It is impossible to do the same with Tbilisi, there is no reason or rationale. However, Baku and Ankara are trying to catch Tbilisi with their political-economic pincers, considering the strategy of regional dominance, as well as the impact of the policy of blockade of Armenia.
Double blockade harms Armenia but is not fatal. The picture will be difficult if problems occur with Georgia’s roads. Tbilisi and Yerevan are able to maintain a rational and warm and friendly cooperation but strategically the picture may be unpredictable if Azerbaijan and Turkey achieve big political and economic influence on Georgia. In addition, the picture will be unpredictable not only for Armenia but also Georgia.
The elite in Tbilisi must understands this and therefore can imagine that Georgia’s security will be ensured at a regional level only if it goes together with Armenia. Currently there are a lot of hindrances to this prospect not only Turkish-Azerbaijani but also Russian. Tbilisi and Yerevan each are trying to neutralize it, and strange though it may seem, Georgia views three-party formats with Turkey and Azerbaijan in this context.
Of course, there is a big possibility to predict that in terms of this observation Tbilisi gets assistance from NATO which is trying to enlarge its institutional presence in Georgia.
The point is that the three-party format Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan which tolls anti-Armenian thoughts at first sight obtains a different nature in case of NATO’s institutional presence in Georgia and deepening of Georgia’s bias to NATO.
In this setting, Georgia becomes NATO’s watch in the regional policy of Turkey and Azerbaijan, not an object in the Turkish-Azerbaijani pincers. In other words, Georgia clears danger, rather than exposes Armenia.
Hence, with the almost a quarter century status quo in the region Armenia established the basis for the regional security system and is clearing Georgia’s security front by maintaining it, and Georgia with its watch will clear Armenia with NATO’s institutional support.
In this functional logic, with several objective and subjective issues to formation and almost impossibility in the visible future, the new security pillar in the Caucasus – the Armenian-Georgian tanged – is in process of de facto formation in the Euro-Atlantic context.