Grigory Trofimchuk, a defense and security expert, told Tert.am that the West will choose the “sovereignty” of Karabakh. “There is nothing else Russia can do to help,” he said.
In this context, he says, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan becomes inevitable, and Russia will be blamed for the consequences of the war.
Apparently, the Russian experts are seriously discussing the possible options for settlement of the Karabakh conflict that the West may propose. This is actual first of all because Russia has not been able to promote its own option of settlement and has appeared in a political deadlock. In addition, Azerbaijan is already begging to return to the principles of Madrid and Kazan to make sure that Russia does not lose its influence on the process of settlement.
The probability is big, and the Russian experts are discussing all the options. Trofimchuk claims that the West helps recognition of the independence of Karabakh, and Russia cannot help with anything? Why can’t Russia help? Russian experts are trying to remember the grounds for Russia’s rights to Karabakh and cannot allow for sovereignty. This is about the treaties of Gyulistan and Turkmenchai under which 200 years ago Karabakh passed from Persia to Russia.
As Azat Arshakyan says, Russia does not want to remember the key reason – the decision of the Caucasian Bureau of the Communist Party on giving Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Let Russia void that decision, and the Karabakh issue will be resolved automatically.
The sovereignty of Karabakh which the West may opt for will resolve this problem and eliminate the cause of the Karabakh conflict – Stalin’s decision on handing Karabakh to Azerbaijan. The question is when the West will bring this solution into being and in what borders the sovereignty of Karabakh will be recognized. There is another important question too. Can Russia prevent the sovereignty of Karabakh by the Western countries? So far Russia has been able to persuade Armenia to reject the “gifts” of the West. Yerevan lazily responds to the recognition of the independence of Karabakh by the U.S. states, the recognition of the Armenian Genocide by 44 states, Washington’s readiness to invest billions of dollars in “sovereign energy”. Could Yerevan similarly “ignore” sovereignty in Karabakh if that happens?
Will Russia intensify the military actions if the West opts for sovereignty? It is not accidental that Trofimchuk says Russia will be blamed for the war.