Lavrov already fears a color revolution in Russia, not Armenia
The United States has suspended non-immigrant visa issuance in Russia and will resume only in September and only in Moscow. This is the response of the United States to the request to reduce the number of American diplomats in Russia.
The Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov thinks this step is an attempt by the United States to provoke a color revolution in Russia. “The first impression is that the authors of these decisions are making another attempt to cause dissatisfaction among the Russian citizens with the Russian authorities. This is a well-known logic, this is the logic of those who organize color revolutions,” Lavrov said.
Russia never hides its fear of color revolutions, expressing concerns that Russia may “persuade the countries which are in Russia’s “area of influence” to “abandon” it and move to another civilization level.” Now, apparently, the loop is tightening around Russia, and Lavrov is already speaking openly that the United States wishes to cause dissatisfaction with the Russian government. And now Moscow will no longer have time for satellites.
Russia tried its hardest to oppose a “color revolution” in Armenia. Moscow even hurried to define the Electric Yerevan “maydan” to distract attention from Russia. The issue of the Russian serviceman Valery Permyakov was solved similarly. Russia did everything it could to make sure that the anti-Russian moods in Armenia do not cross the border.
However, it seems that Armenia has crossed the border which used to be defined as maydan or a color revolution. The Yelq parliamentary group intends to initiate a process of Armenia’s exit from the Eurasian Economic Union. Although the parliamentary majority announces that “it is not the time”, they gladly participate in the discussions and substantiate the discussions. There are other signs too that Armenia is looking for a new haven, including its participation in NATO exercise, “separate” negotiations with Iran and China.
Under different circumstances Russia would immediately solve the problems of the “color revolution” in Armenia but Moscow is busy now. The United States has got down to Russia and wants to cause dissatisfaction there, not in the satellite countries.
Has Moscow got used to the idea of losing satellites, particularly the Caucasus, provided its own problems? Moscow will certainly try to exit the Caucasian game with minimum losses. For this purpose, Russia may take preventive and unexpected steps in our region. There are already calls which will be used as an opportunity by Russia in case of a fall. Interestingly, Russian experts consider only the Armenian theme as a “trump card” or an object of trade.
For example, Russian experts offer Moscow to return to the Treaty of Turkmenchai signed in 1828 “forever” and take up the protection of the border with Iran, including the Karabakh border. The Russian media have informed that Moscow intends to participate actively in the technical refurbishment of the border of Nagorno-Karabakh and Iran. There is another proposal to withdraw the Karabakh settlement from Yerevan and start three-party Moscow-Baku-Stepanakert negotiations. There is also an opinion that Russia may provoke clashes in Karabakh to back “Turkey” and prevent the spread of the separatist movement in the region following the Kurdish referendum.
The proposals will not necessarily brought into being, especially that the Russian experts seem confused. However, the Armenian side must follow Russia’s steps attentively to be able to face possible challenges in complicated situations.