In case of a new attack of Azerbaijan there will be an answer, the security area will be enlarged, the minister of defense of Artsakh Levon Mnatsakanyan has stated.
“In such counteraction, we will enlarge the width and depth of the existing security area, those few emplacements which passed under their control during the actions in April 2016 will be retrieved by all means,” he said.
Member of Parliament Arthur Tovmasyan said that “during the April war the historical territories of Artsakh should have been liberated for new security areas to appear.”
Speaking of the results of a possible war, the famous Russian military expert Alexander Khramchikhin told First News that “if a new war starts, and it does not have a very large scope, with the participation of external forces, objectively speaking the most probable outcome of war is that Azerbaijan may seize a few more square meters from Karabakh, not more. Everything will end in a situation of more or less unchanged status quo but both sides will have big losses.”
At the same time, he said that “the Armenian side may try the option that Israel used but with armed forces, not the air force. However, this is already related to the political will of the leadership of Armenia. Yes, indeed, the preventive strike gives a very big advantage in military terms but political will is essential for taking such a step.”
The Russian expert hit the target. Both during the April war and the so-called negotiation process we deal with the will of the political leadership of Armenia, or rather its absence. For example, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief may publicly give up on returning the lost positions and agree to some ceasefire based on a decision made by Aliyev and Putin. In addition, he may later announce that he is not aware of the details of the discussion in Moscow, during the meeting of the chiefs of staffs of armed forces of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan when the agreement on ceasefire was reached.
The same situation is with the so-called political settlement. During the days of the April war the Armenian political leadership made several adequate statements which could have changed the situation. The point is that in the early 1990s the Armenian leadership signed documents which actually recognized Azerbaijan’s rights to territories and war, placing the Armenian side at disadvantage. In April, in the result of the bravery of Armenian soldiers there was a possibility to change this situation but the political leadership of Armenia again expressed a wish to negotiate with Aliyev over the “security area” and the mess with the status.
Such behavior causes aggression in Azerbaijan and loss of Armenian soldiers. A famous political scientist compares the behavior of the political leadership of Armenia with the Stockholm syndrome where the leaders of Armenia are the captive, and Azerbaijan is the captor.
Is there a similarity? Definitely. “Land for status”, “security area”, “there is no alternative to negotiations” and other such fashionable notions are the best evidence.
Nobody in this world cares for the problems of Azerbaijan. Ostensibly, Russia does not care too. Especially that nobody is forcing to give lands to Azerbaijan. In the case of Azerbaijan, nobody is speaking about “territorial integrity” except some experts and politicians bought from Baku. Azerbaijan was not allowed a large-scale war with tough warnings.
However, it turns out that all this does not matter. All the ruling regimes in Armenia during the first war in Karabakh and after it, a significant part of the Armenian public still suffers the Stockholm syndrome. In addition, it is remembered that when the Armenian forces counterattacked and enlarged the vital territory of Artsakh and Armenia, part of the Armenian public said we are not going to get away with it and so on. In addition, they had a feeling of remorse.
The situation has changed, of course, and in the April war our soldiers were not only free from that syndrome but were also ready to punish the enemy, enlarging our vital territory. They were stopped by “you know who”, Artur Tovmasyan says. Besides, we know the reason.
What order will be there in case of a new war? Is it worth waiting for Azerbaijan’s steps? The Armenian chess-loving authorities play with the blacks though they should have played with the whites. And in fact, there was no need to play at all.
There are no captors any more but the captive’s mind remains. The Armenian political leadership is hopelessly old and behind the current setting, which will cause new victims.