Does Serzh Sargsyan intend to be nominated for the position of prime minister after leaving the post of president? Serzh Sargsyan continues not to answer that question. He avoided once again to answer this question in an interview with EFE.
Sargsyan has announced that there is not a plan as such. Of course, it is hard in this storming and fast-changing world to plan the government, when the influence of the international processes on the Armenian government and statehood in general is very big.
Serzh Sargsyan may be tired, at least his fatigue is reflected on his face, and he would gladly leave but there is no post-tenure security guarantees in Armenia.
The point is not that the illegitimate government of Armenia has increased the country’s dependence on the external world. There is another important thing too, irrespective of that external dependence, or the understanding of it.
The point is that the international politics, currently in a stage of deep transformation of the security system and relations, which has caused a heated and even belligerent developments in several regions, a strong opposition between the West and Russia with the other ensuing local revisions, which is becoming rather unpredictable.
In this situation it is never possible to imagine what political decisions or political military steps the Armenian government will be induced to in a year or three by the international political situation.
And this government is a system which had, mildly speaking, issues with the Constitution and the law for two decades, was formed against them, relied on capital gained by way of bypassing it, went for several internal and external political and economic deals without bearing any political responsibility for that.
Hence, the global political and military developments and major reshuffles may lead to a situation when the Armenian government will inevitably have to make serious decisions that will cover the interests and even the security of the subjects or groups that formerly were or currently are part of the government.
Hence, by leaving the government and the leading position of a decision maker, Serzh Sargsyan appears in the zone of risk, especially that the international developments will be inevitable for a long time.
In this context, it is hard to have plans because, on the one hand, staying in government is becoming a guarantee. On the other hand, the persistent efforts to remain in government despite the unpredictable international politics may generate risks.
Apparently, Serzh Sargsyan will make a decision to stay or to go at the last moment. In the meantime, he will try to prepare the “file” or “folder” of any of its decisions to make sure that the papers are fine in case of any decision, whatever decision is made.
After all, this is going to be the guarantee for transition of power to even the most trusted heir because Serzh Sargsyan knows that papers, not people are reliable in the ruling system in Armenia.