Presenting the draft budget 2017 in parliament, Prime Minister Karen Karapetyan announced that they have put forth a target 3.2% growth of the GDP therefore the government will have to make huge efforts but they will do everything they can to achieve this goal.
At the same time, Karapetyan said that the Armenian economy has dropped over the past years due to the decrease of the Russian economy and the dropping international prices of copper and molybdenum, which has forced us to boost our international debt and thereby maintain macroeconomic stability.
As is known, Karen Karapetyan’s government has opted for a 100 billion dram cut down on budget expenses not to increase the foreign debt in 2017.
The decrease in expenses will cut down the growth of foreign debt but this will result in a 3.2% economic growth therefore we need money.
If this money does not come in the form of foreign debt, how else is it going to come, who will give the money? Russia will not give anything because it has neither money, nor political motivation.
The West will not give anything because it does not have significant, convincing evidence that the Armenian government opts for important economic and political reforms.
What is the source of finance for the implementation of the goals of Karen Karapetyan’s government going to be? Is it the Global Armenians initiative by a group of around thirty Armenia-based and Diaspora persons representing different areas and sectors a few days ago?
Or, does Karen Karapetyan rely on elections, the electoral period when the oligarchy will invest money in reelection, resulting in economic activity and some statistical effect. In addition, in 2017 one and a half national elections will take place in Armenia. There will be parliamentary elections and a mayoral election in Yerevan which is also very important because it is about the government of Yerevan which is more than half of Armenia .
This may be the reason why in the process of forming of the new government the issue will be put forth before the oligarchy with a sharper stress to make sure that in the parliamentary election not only the oligarchy demands a ransom from Serzh Sargsyan but also he demands a ransom from the oligarchy.
However, this mechanism will mean that the payment is the only condition. In other words, the oligarchy will pay to stay, not to change and to get involved in the rules of the new game.
And this will mean that the criminal oligarchy will “order the music” of the 2017 budget unless the authors of the Global Armenians initiative do it.