The main issue of geopolitics of the South Caucasus is whether the United States has taken time out ahead of the new “throw” or prefers giving the South Caucasus a permanent but not ambitious status.
The impression is that the United States has not made a decision, and the decision making may take longer than the South Caucasian countries had hoped.
Although a lot of American experts and politicians state that soon the United States will return to the previous format of political presence in the region, the current moods in Washington do not confirm these expectations.
On the whole, the pause in the U.S. regional politics does not put forth any threat to the American positions, especially that the western centers of power in the South Caucasus have already managed to set up connections and circumstances which will hardly be possible to overcome if Russia’s aspirations in the strategic southern direction do not get new turns.
After studying the American political literature one becomes convinced that the Americans ignore and underestimate Russia’s possibilities and ambitions in the region.
Russia is in a complicated domestic, social and economic situation, the Russian state is in deep crisis, the Russian foreign policy is in deep crisis of content. However, ignoring Russia’s interests and demands in the area of its national and strategic interests is not correct, and many have been convinced of this at different stages of the recent past.
Russia has set a clear goal to return the lost geopolitical positions, and despite the limited resources and lack of allies and partners, Russia intends to promote its policy and has already achieved visible success.
It is possible that Russia’s main historic success is that the Euro-Atlantic community and the West is in deep systemic crisis and intends to avoid new rivals, especially Russia.
What is happening in the U.S. political circles and to what extent are the ruling elites interested in boosting the influence of their country in the regions which Russia considers as the area of its “national interests”? This is a fundamental issue and it has to be discussed.
One should not forget that Trump enjoys the support of many famous politicians and experts who support modernization and activation of the U.S. global policy rather than isolationism.
The successful economic development and solution of security issues is impossible without an active foreign policy.
The Armenian lobby in the United States is isolated from more actual political circles and cannot affect them. It is well known that they have no friends among policy makers aside from the congressmen and senators.
Hillary Clinton has succeeded in gaining the support of a lot of Republicans, and her team is mostly composed of republicans rather than democrats. At least, Obama has confessed that the democrat establishment is not capable of conducting a diverse and effective foreign policy.
What should be expected from the new administration which will be headed by Clinton for the South Caucasus?
The impression is that the United States has already prioritized its areas of influence. Without influence on the South Caucasus strong presence in Eastern Europe and the Near East is not possible. Russia must leave the region and forget about its claims to the South Caucasus.
Currently Armenia demonstrates its vassal nature and conducts a policy, so it seems that the United States should have given up on it a long time ago.
The Armenian contingent has served in Kosovo, Lebanon and Afghanistan. However, the Armenian media have never published them, the Armenian society has never seen this contingent. Instead, the smallest participation of Armenian troops in pro-Russian events is covered in every detail.
Nevertheless, the United States is trying to maintain its influence, help with investments. In Georgia the United States is following the circles that are trying to set up closer relations with Russia. The Untied States pays less attention to Azerbaijan because it understands that the rapprochement with Russia is determined by iteration of the Turkic policy rather than Azerbaijan’s interests.
How should one state the main issue of geopolitics in the South Caucasus? Of course, it is about ousting Russia from the region. There is no doubt that the South Caucasus is a region of upcoming scandals. Shall we linger or start work? Soon it will be possible to discuss how this is going to happen.