The American co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James Warlick has announced in Yerevan that the main purpose of the regional visit of the co-chairs is to discuss the possibility of enlarging the office of the personal representative of the OSCE CiO. He said all the sides agree, and this is what the presidents had agreed during the meetings in Vienna and Saint Petersburg.
Warlick actually confesses that there are no finalized agreements on the investigation mechanisms and they are not the purpose of this visit. Ilham Aliyev announced immediately after the meeting with Serzh Sargsyan in May that Kasprzyk may enlarge his office a little but Baku will not agree to introduce the mechanism of investigations.
The statement published by the co-chairs on May 17 holds that in Vienna presidents, mediated by John Kerry, Sergey Lavrov and Harlem Dezir, agreed on the introduction of mechanisms for investigation of incidents within the shortest possible period.
Hence, in Vienna Azerbaijan agreed to the introduction of mechanisms but then he changed his opinion, and now it is clear that Baku will not introduce the mechanisms.
Aliyev promised in his latest interviews that he will agree to the introduction of mechanisms only after the “return of occupied territories”. In other words, first Aliyev demands to draw a new border, then to introduce new mechanisms. Armenia insists that the mechanisms are introduced within the current borders.
It is possible to state that the issue of mechanisms is closed, and Warlick’s statement is evidence to this. As a “compensation” the co-chairs will increase the staff of Andrzej Kasprzyk’s mission, OSCE may allow them to carry guns. And the settlement may be postponed for an indefinite period.
Azerbaijan also understands that the introduction of mechanisms is a means of drawing internationally recognized borders. As to the investigation of incidents, nobody needs this. The important thing is that already equipment has been installed on the Armenian side which will help detect the enemy. It is not ruled out that this equipment allowed preventing the two latest attempts at reconnaissance-in-force.
Warlick has not said anything about the investigation mechanisms, which is apparently his main message. The issue of mechanisms is closed.