The year 2011 was marked by the final normalization of the Karabakh issue based on the so-called principles of Madrid, which would mean a national catastrophe for Armenia.
A banal situation has occurred when Azerbaijan is facing a choice: either it returns to these principles and waives the mountainous part of the Karabakh province and thereby makes the life of people in this part of Artsakh impossible or resumes the war and runs a risk.
It is clear that Azerbaijan has not been able to achieve military advantage, and even in this sense its positions have become more vulnerable, and the second Karabakh war would mean destruction of the oil and gas infrastructure, the key economic facilities, the death of at least 100,000 people, let alone losses among the civilian population, removal of the current ruling regime.
The leaders of external parties – Russia, the United States and France – are facing resumption of the scenarios of imitation of negotiations on the Karabakh issue. The Americans and Europeans who have assigned a significant time to Russia, three years, for attempts to persuade the conflict sides to achieve agreements now have the right to point to Russia the void of its politics and impossibility to put pressure on Armenia, as well as on Azerbaijan.
In this respect, most probably there will be an attempt to offer the sides to continue the imitation of negotiations or recognize the current status quo as acceptable for the global community in the face of other more serious threats.
Having refused these offers, Azerbaijan will appear in a difficult situation facing a foreign political blockade.
Aside from these events the years 2008-2012 were characterized by other important findings in understanding the setting not only by a narrow circle of specialists but also broader groups of political nature.
Despite Russia’s forced recognition of two unrecognized countries, only the United States is an actual pro-active center of power in the world which is principally interested in the creation and recognition of new countries in different regions.
The U.S. policy and interests in the Black Sea-Caucasian region are becoming the main factor of containment of ambitions of Turkey aside from Russia’s but play a more dynamic role.
It is possible that Turkey will limit its policy of ignoring Armenia and will prefer setting up relations with it proceeding from its geopolitical interests, despite the end of the process of forming a Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance.
Georgia has to try to conduct a slow ethnic cleansing in its ethnic regions, which means setting up new relations with this neighbor, accepting the possible perspective of strengthening confrontation.
Iran is gradually stepping back from the tactics of waiting and “check” on the loyalty of Armenia to itself and has got down to forming an actual political-military alliance with Armenia with new ambitions, hoping for an “independent” and continuous game in the region.
The emergence of a lot of alliances and blocs in the Eurasian space is coming up which will be non-isolated and non-enclosed, which supposes cooperation of the participants of these alliances with different “centers of power”.
Provided the global and regional interests, the Euro-Atlantic community will have to draft new projects, programs of integration of the countries of Eastern Europe and other correlated regions.
In the visible future China will not be able to gain new positions in Eurasia, primarily in Central Asia and the Caucasus but the importance of the Chinese factor will be growing, which will affect the new arrangement of forces in Eurasia, including strengthening of the military and political presence of the United States.
The unfolding of the U.S. policy on South Asia will have a strong influence on the political and geopolitical situation of Central Asia and the Black Sea-Caucasus, aimed at establishment of new strategic relations with India, sacrificing the interests of Pakistan to create a new bloc aimed against China and Russia.
There will be significant changes in the Greater Near East where the global “centers of power” will move from the policy of balance of forces to that of containment, which will have a direct impact on the situation in the Caucasus.
Russia will need to assess its political and economic resources and fit into the framework of real opportunities for ensuring its
influence in the areas of its strategic interests, preferring to build up on its relations with tried, traditional allies and partners.
It is funny but the relations between Armenia and Russia will become a priority in case of development of a multi-vector policy, which will be greatly determined by the involvement of Armenia in international political projects.
Now it is absolutely clear that the issue of territories in the Karabakh issue does not exist. Two ally countries demand territories – Russia and Azerbaijan. However, this is not an international issue.
Azerbaijan is disappointed but has not lost the game yet, provided the opportunities in place. The year 2016 was a U-turn in the relations between Russia and Armenia. These two countries are neither allies, nor partners.
Armenia is an obedient vassal, which has been confirmed by the appointment or reappointment of Russia’s protégés. There is a lot of disappointment, among the Armenians too, but despite Russia, not everything is lost for the Armenians.