The year 2013 was tense and there was a U-turn in the politics of Armenia because it was facing a choice of integration direction between the European and Eurasian projects. Armenia preferred heavier political-military and economic dependence on Russia.
The Eastern partnership project has, first of all, a geopolitical importance, and the understanding of these developments will be substantial in the geopolitical context. The project itself was controversial because initially France and Germany did not demonstrate any enthusiasm though later Germany changed its stance, realizing the pro-German vector of the project.
The UK, which supported Poland and Sweden in this project, realized that it would take huge costs which it was against. The new EU member states in Eastern Europe had such a stance.
However, the main unfavorable factor was that the United States was conducting a limited foreign policy, including in Eastern Europe.
Russia did not need accurate plans, concluding that it will succeed in thwarting the project at this stage. However, in the political games with the Western community any plan will eventually run into problems of disproportionate forces and resources, as well as political ideological issues, which are currently referred to as values.
Russia stole several years of successful development from the countries of the region through political gangsterism and delated global changes in Eastern Europe and Eurasia. At the same time, Russia itself appeared in international isolation and blockade, which it is trying to avoid through expansionist methods.
The countries more loosely tied to Russia with political and economic relations Azerbaijan, Moldova and Georgia gained in this situation. They got the “right” to distance from Russia at the cost of loss of territory and other political sacrifice, and despite innumerable social and political problems, they went a step closer to the Western community.
The bid in this game is on Ukraine the leadership of which had internal and external political resources to become an actor in this game, even if not a full participant, trying to get the most out of the West and Russia. Ukraine will, of course, achieve this, and apparently faster and with advantage.
The only country which participated in the project and did not get any closer to the Western community was Armenia.
There used to be an assumption that Armenia will be forgotten and disappear from the international political stage. However, there was another assumption – that the expectations would be more favorable than it had been assumed. Currently, Armenia is out of discussion, Armenia cannot make independent decisions for the Western community on its own, and it will certainly be better to remain Russia’s vassal.
How is it ever possible to build relations with a country that has lost its sovereignty? It is meaningless and rather dangerous. Hence, the West delicately got off the game, conveying that it “respects Armenia’s choice” to remain a vassal.
To some extent, the West is shedding responsibility for the economic and social development and security of Armenia. Even to the limited extent that there used to be so far. The West has assigned Russia to responsibility for Armenia.
Three to four years of negotiation are a long period for long-term conclusions. Hopes for a future through alternative ways are ingenuous and apolitical. The hints that some time later Armenia will be able to sign some “edited” document with the EU seem strange.
The plans of geopolitical arrangement will be adjusted in Eastern Europe, and Armenia will be mentioned in them only in case of necessity to put pressure on Russia, when it is necessary to meet the needs of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
In addition, the Armenian public should not be offended by the West which observes the ethics despite all. And even if the United States, proceeding from its own interests, intends to revive the Armenian state, in case of a dialogue with the Armenians the European Union will demand decency and firm guarantees which are not and cannot be in place.
The Armenian public feels comfortable and is indifferent to the loss of its statehood.