A ridiculous parliamentary election took place in Russia. Over 50 million people, which is more than half of the entire electorate, did not vote. The leader of the Russian communists said Russia’s defense sphere is vulnerable and it has not been able to overcome the economic crisis for 6 years and has appeared in international isolation.
In this setting, Moscow has found no other way but the meat grinder in the Near East. Even the Soviet Union did not do it because at that time in Moscow they realized that the Near East is not a strange region to the Russians.
Currently the Russians are in such shit that they do not need the Near East but political indulgence, i.e. achieve negotiations with the Americans. Therefore, they need to spend dozens of billions of dollars.
Now this adventure seems to be free from blood but going into such meat grinder means not only flying airplanes but also a lot of victims when Syria will become the next Afghanistan for Russia. There will be “dignified” departure from that country and new songs by Rosenbaum about “200 loads”.
The Russians have informed about the military base in Syria hoping for lasting presence in the Near East. However, staying in this region does not mean having a permanent military base in that region. There is no country in the Near East that would be interested in the presence of Russia, especially Russian presence.
It seems easy to divide the posts to Sunnis and Shiites when the Russians allegedly support the Shiites. First, the confessional bidding fails, it is not the business of the atheist and cynical Russia. The Russians continue to appear as a “great power” which must rely on two and ideally opposite sides.
However, it is more important that the leader of the Shiite world Iran views Russia not only as a country that can deceive in broad daylight but also as a rival. Russia does not need Iran in any region from Central Asia to the Near East.
The attitude of the Shiites of Syria (are they Shiites indeed?) towards Russia is adjusted to the conjuncture. The Russians understand how vulnerable its plans in the Near East are. Their perceptions are that the military presence in the Near East must be the last attempt to negotiate with the Americans, not to cling to the region.
The Russians have realized that the sanctions against them are not temporary and are aimed at suffocating them in poverty and isolation. The Russians have realized that they are useless in the world and want to stumbled into somewhere that would be the best. Of course, the Near East cannot be favorable for anyone, everyone will face not only big expenses but also big victims there. This is the price that the Russians are ready to pay to return into the framework of the global civilization. Departure from the Near East is a farewell to such a status for the great powers. The same goes for the Russians.
In such an expectable situation the Black Sea and the Caucasus are viewed in a different way. In other words, the borderline beyond which Russia can defend its posts. Currently these regions will become a space over the front line for the Russians.
The role and importance of the countries of the Black Sea and the Caucasus will change. They are already part of the U.S. and NATO strategy. Russia is supposed to strengthen its foothold in the Caucasus and the Black Sea. However, no new strategies are expected aside from re-arming their armed forces.
NATO has actually integrated Ukraine and Georgia. After a lot of hesitation Azerbaijan will turn its back to Russia and become a Turkish area which will result in the elimination of that country through the efforts of its neighbors.
Armenia will remain Russia’s vassal without any hope for restoring sovereignty. In this situation, it is very difficult for Russia to protect its own interests, relying on Armenia only which is not interested in defending Russia’s interests.
Russia was not able to become a big global power, become a big Near Eastern country, and in the current stage it has to prove that it cannot become a Caucasian great power. An isolated country cannot become a great power in the modern world.
Russia will soon stop being an oil great power, it will remain as a turf great power. This is not bad. It is necessary to dig turf in unattended marshes.