Who Will Win U.S. Presidential Election?

    • Comments - 12 September 2016, 23:39
The strengths and weaknesses of the candidates were revealed ahead of the presidential elections. For Hillary Clinton, it became clear that the extremely big hopes for the middle class and other classes who were able to support her were not justified. No doubt Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump but not as much as it had been expected.

Neither H. Clinton, nor D. Trump was able to mobilize the electorate, and their “social base” turned out to be limited. However, while D. Trump was badly mistaken in his arguments and factors, H. Clinton was wrong in something else – she was not able to propose successfully Margaret Thatcher’s model: her gender and age are against her. What is good for men does not work out for women.

In terms of teams, H. Clinton is ahead of her opponent in many aspects. In fact, as it has already been stated many times, the Republican Party is disorganized, and its imminent representatives are working for Hillary Clinton.

D. Trump’s “team” is looking for balance and acts thoughtlessly. It has been announced that Russia is a good country and V. Putin is a good guy, they should make friends to strike Syria together. It is clear where this idea comes from. Of course, one of the leading political consultants in the United States Paul Manafort. Currently Paul Manafort has been sacked because he could not offer Donald Trump an effective and justified program.

I met and talked to P. Manafort in Kiev where he was the main ideologist of President Yanukovich and earned good money. P. Manafort is a stoic Republican and worked out the trip of Yanukovich’s son to almost entirely Republican institutions in the United States. There is a detailed account on this in my book about Ukraine. He persuaded me to distance the president’s family from one of the Armenian strongmen because he thought that they thereby direct Yanukovich towards Russia.

In fact, Russia has always been an object of a speculative game, considering that the Russians were ready to support Yanukovich at any price. Currently Donald Trump has no other factors in foreign policy aside from declaring his commitment to cooperation with Russia. It is possible that Paul Manafort has agreed with the Russians over supporting D. Trump.

However, one may also assume that the initiator or implementer of this idea is not P. Manafort. It is possible that some political consultant of German origin is dealing with this or rather a person who is linked to certain companies in Germany. In fact, this is not so important, one should understand that T. Trump holds on to absolute fiction considering that he is disorganized and has a vague idea of his next step.

In reality, D. Trump is linked to absolutely aggressive politicians and will not step back from their positions on Russia, he simply has no alternative. However, even if he comes to government, which is unlikely, the Republicans leave aside a lot to the future, and he cannot expect any support from the Republicans now.

Donald Trump practically has no idea of the regional policy which is an indefeasible part of the U.S. foreign policy.

However, let us not list the weaknesses of the presidential candidates. What is the phenomenon of D. Trump and why did the Republican Party allow him to penetrate to such a desirable arena for a politician?

Over many years the Democratic Party and its people were in euphoria of political rise, and the long-time forecast was that the Democrats would again come to the White House. This could not arrange the chances correctly and allow understanding the expectations.

It should be noted that in this situation the Democrats could not nominate a young and substantial presidential candidate. H. Clinton is not the best choice but apparently an attempt to nominate a more experienced politician who, unfortunately, is not much popular.

The Republicans have apparently agreed on their behavior in this situation when the party has no chance. It should be noted that this decision did not occur at one when a lot of pretenders rejected struggle, making way for a marginal and unsubstantial “politician” D. Trump.

It was necessary to nominate a rich person who did not need subsidies and could set little threat to H. Clinton and thereby raise his price significantly. The most unexpected thing was that Jeb Bush who represented a powerful family left the race unexpectedly. His step did not indicate weakness but the understanding of the upcoming period of important pause.

This pause is necessary and poses a lot of objectives and problems the solution of which will lead the Republican Party to a phenomenal victory in the future.

D. Trump is not a patch. His role is to scare and increase the value of pretenders to H. Clinton’s team. The Republicans will do everything for this invaluable favor to mock D. Trump to the point of “official marginality”.

He bids for the social class which is fed up with traditional vows of improved lives though he has not uttered a word on health care or education. All these things are alien to him, he is a “small shopkeeper” even though he is a billionaire. There are many such people in the United States and they have already occupied their place in the society. They do not care about foreign policy and defense.

The solution has not come yet, it will come later, at the end of October. Over the upcoming period both candidates will offer something unexpected.