The Russian political scientists integrated in government agencies who believed for many years that it is in line with Russia’s interests to “freeze” the Karabakh issue are now offering the following. They think Armenia could altogether reject this plan, and Russia will have no political resources to insist on the implementation of this project.
At the same time, it is not recommended to go to the United States for help but to build up the relations with Russia. We think that this is not just a separate recommendation depending on the situation but a fully developed and meaningful technology.
It should be noted that visible confusion and a lack of confidence is observed among Russian analysts and political designers relating to the “Karabakh project”. A significant part of the analytical community in Russia considers this project unrealistic.
According to Russian analysts, the administration of the Russian president has requested the special services to lay down their opinions on the “Karabakh project” which has produced inadequate results. The heads of the Russian special services did not complicate their situation and did not provide negative assessments.
According to special services, namely the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, this project “contains new interesting proposals and may become a starting point in unfolding the Russian policy on the South Caucasus”. The FIS recommends paying attention to the stage of agreement of proposals and positions, as well as to work on achieving consensus in Armenia and Azerbaijan, which will be a difficult task.
Currently, the administration of the Russian president is not trying to involve the representatives of research institutes and centers. The Russian experts who visited NKR will, one way or another, keep to their opinion that the “Karabakh project” is, in fact, nothing but a political adventure but these opinions are not expressed publicly.
Proceeding from the work done, it is allowed to arrive at the conclusion that the “Karabakh project” has been initiated mostly by the Azerbaijani lobby in Moscow which is closely linked to Dmitry Medvedev. It should be noted that Vladimir Putin and his people in the president administration, as well as the minister of foreign affairs S. Lavrov still have expressed no enthusiasm and positive expectations about this project.
There is no confidence that thus Russia’s strategic interests and the objectives of the lobby in Moscow match but both are in place in the promotion of the “Karabakh project”.
We think that the United States, despite the complicated domestic situation, do not have to give up on confident actions in the South Caucasus. The United States may lose a lot of positions in the region acquiring which took a lot of political and economic resources.
Considering the critical stance of the leadership and society in Nagorno-Karabakh Republic on the Russian plans, “signals” from the United States regarding support to the NKR positions would be quite pertinent.
At the same time, some critical assessment of the U.S. for the Russian plans will cause enthusiasm and positive expectations of the Armenian society which is ready to revise its attitude to the Russian politics.
At one time the meeting of Hillary Clinton with American experts when she was the Secretary of State led to confidence and understanding of the setting in the South Caucasus.
A public and political discussion has been unfolded in Armenia which needs external support because the security of the country is concerned. This discussion is scarce in facts and suggestions but full of guessing. Apparently, the thoughts of the Armenians will not become any more meaningful in the future.
Despite various adventurous and indecent thoughts of the Armenian pro-Russian agents new conditions are forming in Armenia for a Maidan and this is inevitable. One of the main reasons of Maidan is the Karabakh issue. The Americans have realized this.
The farther Russia gets, the
more it loses the strategic vision and strategy in foreign policy. The Russian policy has a short-term perspective, not two or three years but several months at best.
In this situation Russia has new incentives for rapprochement with Azerbaijan and Turkey, at this point the Russians feel they have found reliable and subordinate partners in the Southern direction.
In reality, Russia has gained “masters” which can buy anyone and anything in Russia for peanuts, including the president of this isolated country.
Armenia has become something different for Russia, like small change in its meaningless losing game with more confident countries.
Russia is still trying to maintain its positions in the South Caucasus but the only way is a slavish subordination of Armenia to Russia’s whims.
Armenia refused and thwarted everything that would be possible in the relations with NATO and the EU. The Americans realized the essence of the current Armenian leadership, considering it incapable, as well as ready for all forms of capitulation to the Russians.
Now Armenia is not even a country but memory.