The ruling family in Azerbaijan and the circles surrounding this family have significant wealth which, in fact, cannot be absorbed in Azerbaijan for political and economic reasons. Therefore, huge assets are created abroad, namely oil and gas refining and transportation facilities, as well as sellable immovable property.
Aside from these financial operations, Azerbaijan is buying a lot of weapons, increasingly expensive weapons which makes it attractive for suppliers.
The big corporations and governments of different countries intend to pump as much money from Azerbaijan as possible whose place and role are determined by the participants of global politics. At the same time, it is clear that the current “oil” status of Azerbaijan is short-term, and this is the key factor that matters in considering the usefulness of this country in the nearest and more far-reaching future. Of course, this is a somewhat simplified image, and there are different nuances and specific aspects but it should be noted that the full picture of the goals of external partners relating to Azerbaijan differs greatly from the simplest option.
One will become convinced of this by reviewing specific objectives of the ruling “family” abroad. First of all, it should be noted that the ruling “family” was unable to join not only the circle of the global political elite but also the partners of the “second circle”. So far the “family” has failed to get genuine guarantees from one of the countries which took part in the “project of the century”.
The United Kingdom allegedly has some commitments to the “family”, which prefers protection of the “family” to protection of Azerbaijan as a country. According to British political experts, first, it would be an inadequate role for the UK to have under its aegis such an insignificant country as Azerbaijan. Second, the “family” behaves so that it is impossible to cover up its activities.
As of today, it is impossible to find in quality (and not only quality) British press an article that would picture Azerbaijan’s policy positively. It is easy to find such media in many countries of Eastern Europe and other regions which have no importance to the international public opinion.
Unlike in the United States and Russia, Azerbaijan has failed to find a more or less solid author in the UK who would agree to promote and defend the Azerbaijani interests. And this is happening in a setting when Azerbaijan spends immense sums for “work” with many politicians and officials in private companies in London.
The task of pumping money out of Azerbaijan is fulfilled successfully but how effective is it from the point of view of national interests which apparently differ from the interests of the “family”?
However, the role and activities of the country on the international arena are not limited to propaganda. Having achieved permanent membership in the Council of Security and promoting their interests in the European organizations, Azerbaijan has zero results.
While fulfilling the function of military transit and the platform for intelligence in the Caspian and Iranian direction for the Euro-Atlantic community Azerbaijan failed to gain anything successful in the structure of the balance of relations Armenia-Azerbaijan-Western community.
After the recurrent visits and statements by high-ranking representatives of the West it becomes clear that Azerbaijan cannot get any new positions. Baku has already managed to experience the policy of the United States and leading European countries on distancing Azerbaijan from Turkey because the West detected a threat to its interests.
At the same time, a condition of self-isolation from the Islamic world has been put forth which is not interested in close cooperation with Azerbaijan.
The Euro-Atlantic community has readily accepted the plans of strengthening integration with Armenia, which are aimed at ensuring the balance of forces in the region and prevention of isolation of Armenia.
Analogically, the West has set prohibitions to the relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, which is nonsense from the point of view of Azerbaijan’s interests. As to Turkey, Baku has realized that Ankara has its own plans and interests, and Turkey does not have any resources and opportunities for resolving the problems of Azerbaijan.
Recently Azerbaijan has lost its main political factor on the international arena. The oil projects were quickly depoliticized, and the gas projects have no chance to gain a political importance. However, it was the main stake of Heydar Aliyev and the entire Azerbaijani society.
Thus, Azerbaijan, being ruled by a vulnerable “family”, having opened its cards to the West and other countries of the “political map”, did not gain the necessary and acceptable “usefulness” and position. The question is why.
There are things that do not become known at once: a highly unpleasant impression that the “family” and the elite produces, i.e. inadequacy of political and social behavior; uselessness of the geopolitical situation in which there is nothing valuable, hence irreplaceable; the inability to resolve political and national problems independently, preference of a parasitic behavior, including the use of shocking behavior and the money factor; lack of ability for army building, an utter failure to ensure the defense capability of the armed forces as a function against the ethno-social misery.
The situation has changed significantly and will change even more – the Americans are introducing hydrogen as a motor fuel. One way or another, new ways of improving electricity will be invented, and oil will become a raw material for chemical industries at best. Now oil already stops being an irreplaceable strategic raw material.
The political leadership in Azerbaijan has realized this and hurries to apply new directions in foreign policy but the countries will be an outsider in many relationships. Most importantly, due to the change of the format of the authorities Azerbaijan stops being a Near Eastern country that exports oil.
The current political leadership of the country will stop existing sooner than the foreign aggressive policy ends. Azerbaijan will have to count on its geopolitical situation, not oil. These goals are related to the aspiration to be a partner of Russia and Iran.
Now Azerbaijan is ready for many things but soon it will be ready for everything to save its statehood because there are enough factors that lead to the fragmentation of this temporarily existing country.