The international analytical community is trying to forecast whether what is happening in the Near East is the end of the 100-year cycle and the beginning of the end or whether the ongoing cycle has a potential for a long-term war.
On September 4-5 G20 will be held in China during which important meetings may take place. It is not accidental that ahead of the summit the situation in Syria aggravated, Turkey invaded that country without a punishment, and they are already speaking about lasting agreements on Syria. The key question is whether Syria will be fragmented or the global leaders will prefer not to break the centennial system of state borders in an explosive region.
Turkey’s invasion, the intensive negotiations of Lavrov and Kerry are evidence that the decision on fragmentation has been made, and the actors playing secondary roles – Russia and Turkey – are trying to get their share. The “leader”, as Maria Zakharova put it, is the United States.
Analysts say Turkey and Russia will receive their share and will present it as a geopolitical victory. If the fragmentation happens, and the Lausanne system breaks down, Turkey and Russia will suffer a defeat. As a “gift”, Russia may get a “friendly” Latakia, and Turkey will get a network which will divide Kurdish units in Syria.
The calm response of the international community to the Turkish invasion is evidence that agreements have been reached. There is an opinion that now specific issues are discussed, such as the composition of the peacekeepers.
The Armenian press hints that the Armenian forces may be included in the Russian “contingent”, such as in Latakia or Kessab which is populated by Armenians. Recently Seiran Ohanyan welcomes Russia’s humanitarian efforts in Syria during the visit of the Russian defense minister Sergey Shoygu to Yerevan. It was understood as the readiness of Armenia to participate in the future “peacekeeping” mission in Syria. In addition, the Armenian peacekeepers are currently serving in Lebanon in the UN forces.
The participation of the Armenian troops in the possible division of Syria is not the only thing that may be related to the Armenian interests. The collapse of the state borders drawn 100 years ago may change fundamentally the logic of the Karabakh settlement and the Armenian-Turkish relations. While there is no hope for big changes in the Armenian-Turkish relations, the situation may favor the Karabakh issue.
The tendency to recognize the independence of Karabakh in the current borders is gradually becoming more tangible. The hysterical statements of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs relating to the celebrations of the 25th
anniversary of the NKR independence indicate that Baku knows more about the expected developments than Karabakh.
Besides, Baku unexpectedly asked 1 billion dollars from IMF “for reconstruction of the Karabakh territories after their return”. Apparently, the international community is ready to provide that amount, and Baku is trying to get it before the recognition of Karabakh.
One way or another, G20 in Beijing may be a breakthrough for the creation of a new world order in the Greater Near East. The Karabakh issue set up the basis for that world order, and one only has to lay it down in a new international agreement.