The key factor in setting up geopolitical balance in the Black Sea Caucasus region is the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey which have appeared in a similar situation.
Both countries are in a geopolitical blockade, they have claims to the West, are interested in development of economic ties and achievement of agreements in the defense and security spheres.
These relations between Russia and Turkey, as well as the declared interests in the South Caucasus, allow balancing their influence in which the countries of the region are interested. However, the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey will, one way or another, lead to attempts at separating the South Caucasus from the West, the region from NATO and the EU.
There are lots of controversies between Russia and Turkey, and an alliance is hardly possible. However, even without fundamental agreements, Russia and Turkey may push the United States out of the region in some hypothetic way.
Now Turkey’s destiny, its ambitions worry the American politicians less. The United States prefers not to set obstacles to the Turkish expansion until Turkey runs into other regional players and enters into serious conflicts.
The Turkish expansion in different directions has already caused concerns in the countries of the Near East, Balkans and Iran.
One of the key circumstances of the rapprochement between Turkey and Russia is the wish of the two countries to become more independent from the United States. Turkey has set these goals back in the 1980s and Russia is using this.
Why is Turkey trying to become independent from the United States? The cooperation with the United States and NATO has brought a lot of advantages to Turkey and has turned it to a regional macro powers. However, the United States does not like this status of Turkey and its opportunities to ensure its own security and economic development.
The Americans have realized that it will not be possible to return Turkey’s former status. The United States does not want to distance Turkey from NATO because in this case a hostile situation against the United States may occur in the region.
However, the Americans have realized that time will come when it will be necessary to accept Turkey’s leaving NATO.
The United States is disappointed with the emergence of different blocs and unions in Eurasia, and Turkey may achieve the creation of a new bloc which will become hostile for the West.
The United States cannot allow itself to distance Turkey from NATO without infringements on its territorial and political integrity. In fact, the United States is trying to find out how to apply the plans of the 50s considering the “left” and “right” projects. At one time it was perceived as an exotic pseudo-reality but now Turkey is thoroughly studying these problems.
Any plan of different times, including Woodrow Wilson’s plans may be applied with some meaning. In such a situation and with such a prospect Turkey has to rely on Russia which is ready to grab any proposal on “friendship and cooperation”.
Russia may become Turkey’s savior which is against the aims of many countries of the Near East, primarily Egypt and Iran, as well as Saudi Arabia. In this respect, no challenge and economic issue may be seen as fundamental regarding the rapprochement with Russia.
The key factor is to save Turkey from collapse. Therefore, it would be better to study fundamentally the attempted state coup in Turkey. Most probably, this was an attempt to check the capacities of the public administration and the security system.