Azerbaijan Ahead of Fragmentation

    • Comments - 19 August 2016, 00:23
Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran

There are no doubts that the anti-Iranian actions in Azerbaijan are motivated by mere stupidity but stupidity, if it is consistent, leads to the emergence of a concept and not only in foreign policy making but also in public consciousness.

Azerbaijan is obviously in a state of fragmentation of public goals and priorities which may lead to not only a decay of statehood but also, first of all, doubt the matching of the ruling elite with the ethnic identity of the population which lives in this territory.

To be clearer, the population of this territory will face the question as to what extent the ruling elite belongs to this ethnicity.

The authorities are looking for ethnic identity and, in parallel to the authorities, the society is busy with the search. This search will last long to the extent of the framework of what is called the Republic of Azerbaijan.

It turned out that the anti-Armenian thoughts and actions are not sufficient for the self-consciousness, anti-Armenian sentiments are just an external motive for attempts at solidarity. However, anti-Armenian sentiments do not form a nation, whereas the anti-Iranian sentiment is what one needs.

The leadership of the Republic of Azerbaijan does not think about Iranian Azerbaijan. It bewares even certain contacts because the goals are quite different.

The group of the ruling elite formed of 90 families pursues wealth and comfortable existence. Even the intensive procurement of air defense weapons is caused by the sense of fear and the wish to protect themselves and their families.

Anti-Iranism of the elite and public in Azerbaijan is aimed at increasing the distance from Iran and ethnic groups, not in defense of their non-existent co-tribe in Iran. In Baku they hide behind the anti-Iranian sentiment the powerful waves of the Islamic movement which will, sooner or later, devour the public stuck in deep profanation.

Aside from these goals new myths are needed which are born on the basis of wild falsification. The fruits of systemic falsification have been enjoyed fully by both Azerbaijan and Georgia which have not drawn any conclusions from the mistakes of the past and present generations.

It should be noted that there is not a single interested country aside from Israel which would like separation from Iran because this will lead to a geopolitical catastrophe which the United States, Turkey, the UK, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and other sides will hardly be able to deal with.

In all kinds of plans of the United States the wholeness of the Iranian states will be preserved even with the initiatives of the “friends of Israel” which are many among the policy makers. Israel fears cataclysms in Iran, especially among young and advanced politicians and intellectuals.

Azerbaijan has not received any meaningful signals relating to a “positive” outcome in Iran and in the region in general. The cooperation with Israel became a game into someone else’s gates because Israel views Azerbaijan not as a partner but as a polygon for provocations against Iran.

The cooperation with Israel has intensified Azerbaijan’s isolation, first of all in the Arab and Islamic world. One can assume that after disappointment with “those of the same faith” Azerbaijan remembers about the Tat-Jewish origin of their elite, as well as the public in general, if it is acceptable to distance oneself from the public or the nation.

It is hard to tell whether these motives in Baku are rational and meaningful or everything is more simple and Azerbaijan, having run into a deadlock, is trying to trade in some use from the completion of the order of the United States and its partners.

What is better for Azerbaijan? A meaningful policy or intuition? Apparently, irrational behavior is a way of continuing to fight for national ideals, i.e. the best way-out of the political standoff.

Russia is in a situation when only a country like Azerbaijan may be its partner but what does Iran have to do? This is a developing country but a country that respects itself and tries to achieve a status of a regional great power in the Near East though it has already achieved this status.

Why would Iran need Russia in this region as an extra player? Analogically, Turkey does not need the presence of Russia in this region. Both countries keep in mind Russia as an ambitious “partner” for short-term goals.

Azerbaijan is playing a one-sided game and it does not play any role in international politics because it has lost its oil reserves and transit functions. Azerbaijan is an obstacle to Iran, and Russia also cannot understand how to use this country.

Russia is strengthening its dominance in Armenia but Armenia does not play the role of a partner, only of a vassal. The “troika” does not work in this region, whether Azerbaijan-Armenia-Russia or Iran-Turkey-Russia. Any “troika” in this region is a factor of a military clash.

All the three countries benefitted from B. Obama’s pacifism and hope that the United States has lost its influence and military power. “Tales” about the fall of Europe are spread, which is nonsense. The West is stronger than ever, has new technical and technological achievements.

Turkey is going through a period of illusions but Iran understands that the United States is the next partner.

The Russians are calling attempts to create an alliance Turkey-Iran-Russia-Azerbaijan as completed facts. However, this wish is far from reality.

The southern direction is very important for the Russians because there are no hopes for overcoming the sanctions of the Western community, and Germany’s statements are but speculations that have nothing in common with the real state of things. In the South the Russians are not longer perceived as a great power, only an isolated non-technological country. Russia intended to involve Turkey in the Russia-Israel bloc but no bloc was formed. For Israel, Russia and Turkey are different countries that have different dynamics in politics and economy.

The rapprochement between Russia and Israel further isolated Russia in the near East, primarily in the Arab world. The rapprochement with Iran has also formed anti-Russian moods in Arab countries.

To a lesser extent analogical moods may result from the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey. Besides, Russia’s attempts to get closer to Iran and Turkey, as well as Azerbaijan mostly set the West against it.

The Russians have forgotten that attempts at rapprochement of Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan have been made more than once at different stages and nothing has ever come out of this.

However, Russia is not interested in strategic goals now. Russia does not and cannot have a strategic policy. It is in isolation and is trying to escape it. All Russia can do in foreign policy is a war to achieve a recognition of its international position through such methods.

Both Turkey and Iran, possibly also Azerbaijan, understand this very well. These countries have similar goals, they would like to become partners of the United States in exchange for non-existent goals. Russia can fulfill any decision up to betrayal of its “ally”.

Iran and Azerbaijan are antagonists and only a pathetic person or a pro-Russian Armenian could imagine these countries as members of the same bloc. By the way, this type exists in our homeland in abundance.