Scenario and Goal of New War

    • Comments - 14 July 2016, 22:27
Will Kerry “Tear” Russian Plan on Artsakh?

The U.S. Secretary John Kerry leaves France and arrives in Russia on July 14 where he is going to discuss important geopolitical issues, including the Artsakh issue. In this sense, it is noteworthy that Kerry will arrive in Russia from France on the invitation of the French president Francois Hollande. Hollande has invited Kerry to the celebration of the national holiday in France, the storming of Bastille.

Currently, France undertakes a new Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting which will most probably take place in Paris. It will be the continuation of the meeting in Vienna. And it is not clear in what “relationship” this meeting will be with the meeting in Saint Petersburg.

It is crisp and clear that Saint Petersburg was an attempt to distract attention from Vienna, and France’s initiative is an attempt to return to the process to Vienna. The fact that there was significant controversy between the American initiative of Vienna and the Russian initiative of Saint Petersburg became obvious from the statement of Jean Francois Charpentier, the French ambassador in Yerevan, which immediately followed the meeting in Saint Petersburg.

The French ambassador paid attention to the fact that there was not a word about the introduction of the international mechanism of ceasefire maintenance but the ambassador announced that it is a priority. The French ambassador in Armenia announced about its importance recently, in a more recent press conference in Yerevan, saying that the issue of the mechanism is very important.

In fact, Saint Petersburg was Russia’s attempt to distort the agenda of Vienna, and France and the United States expressed their dissatisfaction and even a warning at the level of Barack Obama who had actually demanded a report from Putin on Saint Petersburg.

It is beyond doubt that Russia is playing a double game, on the one hand, trying to assure France and the United States that it is not undertaking any “separate” agreements not to earn a tougher opposition. On the other hand, Moscow is trying to push forward its plan which supposes stationing of CSTO peacekeepers instead of the international mechanism of ceasefire maintenance.

Russia’s plan supposes a new war in either cases, both success and failure. The point is that in case of failure Azerbaijan actually gets a new “legitimate” right to a new war, at least legitimate in the domain of Armenia’s “ally” and the so-called security “alliance”. It is enough for Baku. And in case of success the war will be the option for its fulfillment to “legitimize” the stationing of CSTO peacekeepers. Hence, the last stage of implementation of the Russian plan will be the new “blitzkrieg” with new victims, new destruction and, apparently, stronger and more terrible to make the idea of CSTO peacekeepers unstoppable.

Will France and the United States stop this plan, as they thwarted Kazan plan. It is hard to tell. It is hard to tell. Logically, they must stop, especially that Iran is their ally so the presence of the armed forces of a third country is not desirable in the region.

Armenia could have had a central role in stopping this plan but instead it stopped the process of its sovereignty through the hands of the governmental and non-governmental “elites” and now they hope that France and the United States will stop the Russian plan and successfully promote the idea of introduction of the ceasefire mechanism, thus changing the situation and forming a more definite prospect of stability than now. The dangerous thing is that the need for a new war may occur because Armenia missed the change to change the situation after the April war. Armenia needs a breakthrough, at least in domestic governance, to avoid such “necessity”, to improve defense capability. Armenia is supposed to do the minimum but with maximum effectiveness. However, Armenia obviously falls back in this matter.