The category of conspiracy has always been and will be a component of the operational policy, and currently the importance of non-public policy has become even more significant, including that on quite visible and evident developments.
No conspiracy exists relating to Syria, it is not necessary. The game is quite cynical, hypocritical and rather silly but it does not bother the initiators and players. The Syrian issue has quite direct causes related to certain geopolitical and geo-economic goals. For decades the U.S., France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Turkey and Israel has been struggling for Syria.
The elimination of the strong Arab country in the area of the “Fertile Crescent”, following the elimination of Iraq, leads to full destruction of the geopolitical construction which many Arab states consider archaic and obsolete, as well as it leads to full obedience of the Arab world to the U.S. and its partners, and to the strengthening security of Israel, to the possible integration of Israel with the Arab community.
No large-scale political operation by the U.S. for the last 20 years in the Middle East was carried out without agreeing it with Arab countries. The Arab states except Syria recognized the U.S. as the one and only guarantor of their security. The hostile attitude of Arab countries to Syria is caused by this circumstance, and repression of the Shia factor is a uniting factor for the Sunni Arab states.
The U.S. and France, as well as the Great Britain are interested in preserving the territorial integrity of Syria for the following reasons. Having lost influence on the Syrian territory, France is losing the only strategic “area” in the Middle East, including Lebanon.
The U.S. will face the threat of formation of a radical-Islamic Sunni state, which will have a destructive influence on Iraq. The U.S. and Great Britain view Syria as a direction of transportation of the Iraq oil (of approximately 200 million tons) which ensures “bypaths” of the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal and Turkey’s territory. By the way, such emasculated and overly pragmatic goals and tasks need different approaches. Such issues cannot be solved by way of “alienated approaches” but Obama’s administration is hardly able to understand this.
However, the main victim of this adventure is not Syria but Turkey to which the following cynical requirements are puts forth, namely Turkey can actively contribute to blockade, pressure and elimination of Assad’s regime; Turkey maintains intelligence, communication, adaptation of Saudi Arabia assets; it develops pseudo-democratic rhetoric staying loyal to the principles of pseudo-humanism; Turkey cannot expect military aid and NATO intervention and has no right to military intervention even with the escalating situation in the Kurdish regions; Turkey has no right to any intervention in northern Iraq, including in the oil projects (it is not its share of global business and its zone of influence, it can only deal with trade and construction).
Hence, until the solution of the Syrian crisis Turkey will be facing the prospect of geopolitical blockade and isolation in the direction of the Middle East, which was expected. Hillary Clinton’s visit to Ankara was a gravestone for the doctrine of neo-Ottomanism. Turkey was told the following: “You were offered a very meaningful partnership at the condition of coordination and harmonization of efforts. You refused that and sought independence. Now you have all the opportunities for “free floating” but, of course, at certain conditions which are not agreed with you but introduced to you.”
The aforementioned visit is certainly aimed at defining the “rights and freedom limits” of Turkey in the Middle East, rather than discussing its relations with Syria. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account that the Obama administration in which no significant expert or functionary on Turkey has ever appeared holds a tough position.
What could the Republicans and their large groups of experts on Turkey and Middle East have done? Turkey is pushed towards Eurasia, that is Central Asia, but at the same time, the South Caucasus is pointed out by the Americans as a restricted area for Turkey’s interests. This is the end.
It is noteworthy that the U.S., France and the main lobbyist of Turkey Great Britain have joined efforts for the geopolitical blockade of Turkey. France and the UK direct a large squadron to the Eastern Mediterranean, thus repeating the trick used in Lebanon where Turkey was denied access. At the same time, Turkey cannot turn either to Russia or China to which it introduced itself not as a U.S. tool but as an independent player the interests of which contradict to the interest of the Eurasian superpowers. Iran and Israel are not delighted with its policy either. Next in line is the international recognition of the genocide of 1915. The trap closed catching Turkey. This is the plot.