One of the most frequently discussed issues relating to the upcoming presidential elections is the possibility of Robert Kocharyan’s nomination.
Will he run for president? If yes, how will he do that, directly or indirectly? What will be the so-called content of his campaign – the foreign policy, the Karabakh issue or the economic policy?
While the politically active society of Armenia is considering possible scenarios, answers of most questions could be found at the meeting of Serzh Sargsyan and Vladimir Putin that took place yesterday in Moscow.
This meeting may have decided the issue of Robert Kocharyan’s participation. If Serzh Sargsyan failed to come to terms with Putin on key issues, namely give up the policy of EU integration and agreement to join the Eurasian Union, it is possible that Russia could involve Robert Kocharyan into the game.
But the question occurs whether Robert Kocharyan is ready to get involved in this. After all, Russia would hardly be able to offer 100% of guarantees for victory to Robert Kocharyan.
One of the possible scenarios is that Russia will win but Robert Kocharyan will lose. In other words, Kocharyan will use Russia’s support for his political programs and political ambitions or will use Russia for personal interest or will just become a tool for Russia.
Will Robert Kocharyan take that step without being sure that that he will win the election? In case of failure Kocharyan will be an outsider and be turned out of the “supreme group”.
The point is not only about losing the chance for a direct but also an indirect participation. Now Robert Kocharyan has a very weak chance for an indirect involvement because he is facing issues in the PAP, which would be his platform for indirect participation.
This party is wandering between Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan. In order to keep the situation under control Serzh Sargsyan benefits more from the hesitation of the Prosperous Armenia Party, while Robert Kocharyan needs control over the PAP in order to have the opportunity to go for his political ambitions.
Apparently, Robert Kocharyan’s resource for the scenarios of the upcoming presidential elections will be enough only to take power in the PAP postponing his ambitions relating to the national elections after 2013.