The mass media reported that Serzh Sargsyan and Gagik Tsarukyan are trying to build relations and agree on the upcoming presidential elections. This will be Serzh Sargsyan’s second term so he will have to prepare the ground to hand over power. Surely if there is no force majeure. Although, a force majeure in Armenia would just mean acceleration of that process since the main players here are the Republican and Prosperous Armenia parties.
Just like in 2007, in 2012 the “absolute majority” of the Republican Party did not resolve the issue of power. The RPA won the majority and formed the government but the power is virtual and meaningless. Two “absolute majorities” which are nothing else but usurpation deprived the RPA of any ground for legitimacy.
For its part, this situation will deepen against the background of formation of civil initiatives which have put forward specific issues requiring an urgent solution.
Experts and analysts meant this circumstance when they said that Serzh Sargsyan needs to get rid of the RPA in order to “stay” since it is impossible to build power with a party that has become a criminal-oligarchic poster. The last four years proved this statement. Serzh Sargsyan either failed or was reluctant to do that step though before the elections he had stated about a new quality parliament and minimum representation of the oligarchy there. There is an opinion, quite grounded, that one of the reasons is the behavior of the PAP and the ANC prior to elections, which “revived” those circles.
In short, as it was expected, the Republicans did not believe Serzh Sargsyan in order to change themselves. The second presidential term in an anti-constitutional country, particularly in Armenia, is a bugbear for the president who needs to find a successor and solve the issue of future. In this case, Serzh Sargsyan is in a very complicated situation. He needs to find allies for the election and for the solution of the RPA issue and shift of power.
One of the options is the PAP. Before the parliamentary elections, the RPA had not interfered in the local election in Ijevan and the PAP candidate won who was supported by the Congress, ARF and Heritage. “Ijevan model” is applied to Gyumri where the RPA supports the PAP candidate. Judging by the available information, the same is happening in other large towns where elections of community heads are expected in autumn. After leaving the central government, the PAP will take real power step by step –city by city, village by village around Yerevan.
In the result of a “well-thought and far-fetching” policy, the Armenian National Congress has become the “porter” of the Prosperous Armenia Party which tries to legitimize the PAP in the street and defend it from civil claims. But the Congress itself has lost legitimacy in the “street” and civility, while its attacks on civil initiatives make that party more marginal.
The growing civil society is a bugbear for the political system especially because it has been setting tasks and solving all of them recently. There was nothing similar among the parties which usually act behind the back of the society, making illegal deals, unlike which the civil society does not strive for power and so it is powerful.
This power will change the political system of Armenia and will resolve the issue of forming government, returning this right to the people. It is not accidental that one of the key issues of the political system of Armenia is the elimination of civil initiatives. The power, the PAP and Congress are interested.
How should this issue be solved? As it was noted, the Congress is unable to fulfill its current “function”. A group of individuals keep attacking the civil initiatives in social networks and the mass media. As to the PAP, this party has its specific electorate and has no issues with the civil society but it is also threatened in a political perspective. So, it also focuses on a campaign against the civil sector.
For his part, Serzh Sargsyan attending the board meeting of the police, “granted” freedom to this body which will also deal with the elimination of the civil society.
We may say that the future domestic developments will be aimed at self-preservation of the political system and establishment of the civil system of values. The political system of Armenia is ill-timed and inadequate to the reality and its self-preservation efforts will further deepen the home political and systemic crisis. The signs are already seen when this system is again trying to reach agreements behind the back of the society.