The recent activities of the Armenian National Congress prove that it was influenced by the slogan of the Republican campaign “Believe to change”. Congress leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan apparently thinks that if he assures everyone that Kocharyan does not back the PAP, it will come true.
“Let’s believe Kocharyan is not backing PAP, and Prosperous Armenia will change,” Ter-Petrosyan ostensibly thinks.
On the other hand, he is not ingenuous to believe this. Levon Ter-Petrosyan understands and imagines what can be found behind PAP. Due to several circumstances he cannot acknowledge that Kocharyan is there, behind the PAP, at least to some extent.
The circumstances are the following.
- Levon Ter-Petrosyan is one of those political figures who never admit their mistakes. They acknowledge their mistakes or omissions partially to ground the predictions.
Stating that Kocharyan does not stand behind the PAP prior to the parliamentary elections and considering the cooperation with the PAP as a basis for success, Ter-Petrosyan will notice Kocharyan behind the PAP only in case Serzh Sargsyan invites the Congress to a new and a longer dialogue.
- Levon Ter-Petrosyan has found himself in a tough situation ahead of the 2013 presidential election. He can perfectly see the Congress has run into a deadlock in the fight for change of government and reforms. Ter-Petrosyan is facing an issue of leaving because the prospect of his staying without change of government will not bring him advantages.
The presidential elections 2013 are an essential thing in this sense. For Ter-Petrosyan, this election will be the last one in his political career. On the other hand, the Congress leader understands that the chance for success is big. At the same time, Ter-Petrosyan would like to leave, if he wants to leave at all, with some result and less loss.
For this purpose, the Prosperous Armenia Party is of value to him in case the party decides to nominate a separate candidate for president.
Most probably, their candidate will be Vartan Oskanian.
Ter-Petrosyan will benefit from the “united opposition” under the slogan “self-sacrifice” stating that he won’t run for president in 2013 only for the sake of the joint opposition candidate.
If Oskanian wins, Levon Ter-Petrosyan may withdraw from politics stating that Oskanian won thanks to his “self-sacrifice”. If Oskanian loses, Ter-Petrosyan will leave politics with minimum loss, stating that he made the biggest concession but the PAP failed.
The most important thing for Ter-Petrosyan is not to allow Robert Kocharyan to enter into the game personally as it would cooperation between the PAP and the ANC.
In this sense, Ter-Petrosyan seems to propose to Kocharyan not to join the game in return for his support to Oskanian.
Robert Kocharyan will most probably accept this proposal. Moreover, he was not going to enter into the game. Kocharyan understands that he will need a force majeure to enter the game, while by entering he will cause a force majeure himself. Meanwhile, in this case he will be finally run down by the force majeure hence Kocharyan will prefer mediated participation in the political process.