Experts are considering the upcoming visit of the U.S. Secretary Clinton to the countries of the South Caucasus both in the context of developments in Iran, the Armenian-Turkish, the Karabakh settlement and the intention of the United States to facilitate democratic transition of the South Caucasian countries. There is an opinion that Clinton’s visit intends to demonstrate to Russia that the region has stopped being an area of influence of Russia.
All the factors are in place, of course, but apparently they are the components of the main goal. Half a year before the end of Obama’s office Clinton is obviously summing up. And the summary of the U.S. policy of the past few years is impressive, especially in the region of the so-called bigger Near East which includes the South Caucasus.
Analysts still need to sum up the presidency of Obama but it is obvious that he has been able to end the dependence of the United States on the Near East oil-based authoritarian regimes. The tenure of George Bush was referred to by many political scientists as the regime of oilmen. At that time all the processes were subject to oil interests. As if Barrack Obama had been chosen to break the old relations and he mostly succeeded. Such odious figures as Mubarak, Qaddafi, Berlusconi and even Sarkozy disappeared from the political arena. Several countries were divided, the war in Syria continues, Turkey and Azerbaijan undergo unprecedented pressure.
Armenia also underwent drastic change in these years. The ruling party rejects the offer of Russia to join the Eurasian Union and announces commitment to EU integration. The country is discussing the equal role of the CSTO and NATO for the security of Armenia. A new political system is being formed which is called to replace the authoritarian vertical of the government and build a system of checks and balances. The Karabakh issue has been frozen for a long time, and it will not hamper internal developments in Armenia.
Apparently, Clinton will report these changes in the U.S. policy. Moreover, it should be expected in this context that the U.S. Secretary will announce to boost investments in Armenia. Last year the American investments were the most dynamically growing investments in Armenia. In addition, the United States invested in IT. It is not accidental that during the meeting of the U.S. Ambassador with the Free Democrats investments in IT were discussed.
During the visit some unpleasant evaluations of the parliamentary elections in Armenia will be heard as well but they will aim to urge the Armenian government for more courage. However, the best stimulus will be the American investments. Not assistance and grants but investments which will help tackle unemployment and transform the business culture and set up an alternative to Russian investments, at the same time, ensuring stability.
The question is why the United States makes investments in a small country squeezed between Muslim states. Because Armenia needs to resist this pressure and survive.
The fact that Islamic forces are coming to power in most Arab states will probably force the United States to boost support to Christian countries and communities. The United States and most Western countries are already disbursing money to conserve monuments of Christian culture in plenty of countries. They demand the same attitude from Turkey. They are certainly interested in the development and strengthening of Armenia.
In this context, it is not a surprise that Barrack Obama’s opponent in November will be Mitt Romney, a Mormon. Mormons consider themselves as Christians and Traditionalists, and the next president of the United States, even if Obama is reelected, will conduct a traditionalist policy aimed at promotion of Christian interests.
Apparently, the United States should review its policy on our region in terms of ideology rather than energy policy. Especially that the process has already started in Europe.
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