During a campaign rally in Tavush, Prosperous Armenia leader Gagik Tsarukyan interestingly made a hint on the 2013 presidential elections. He did not speak directly but referring to the tractors that he gave to the villagers he said those who think Gagik Tsarukyan takes his gifts back are wrong.
Tsarukyan said he does not lie and May 7 comes after May 6 and the parliamentary elections of 2012 will be followed by the presidential elections of 2013.
As lies were mentioned, the story of Gagik Tsarukyan’s gun is worth to evoke.
The next presidential elections will be held in 2013. In 2011, Gagik Tsarukyan signed a memorandum with Serzh Sargsyan to support the acting president in the next elections.
The PAP leader has never stated to withdraw his signature from the memorandum though he has always avoided questions whether he will support the president in the next elections.
The fact that Tsarukyan maneuvered after signing the memorandum means that the PAP leader does not control the situation himself and is waiting for Robert Kocharyan’s decision – to race with Serzh Sargsyan in the elections or not.
Moreover, Kocharyan does not exclude that if he succeeds defeating Serzh Sargsyan in the parliamentary elections, he will be the only candidate for president in 2013.
This is the best scenario which is also the least possible scenario, taking into account a number of internal and external circumstances.
Under such conditions, Kocharyan himself will not enter into the game and therefore, perhaps, Vartan Oskanian immediately did, pretending to a key role in the PAP.
Apparently, the issue is whether Vartan Oskanian will run against Serzh Sargsyan in 2013 as the PAP candidate for president.
Perhaps this is the reason why Gagik Tsarukyan states that he will not lie, since presidential election of 2013 will follow the parliamentary election of 2012.
If Tsarukyan did not consider being a direct player in the presidential elections, he would hardly have mentioned it. Let Serzh Sargsyan remember this. But if Tsarukyan also remembers, it is evident that Vartan Oskanian’s promotion is a serious issue of the agenda.
There is little possibility that Gagik Tsarukyan will run himself. Instead, PAP participation through Vartan Oskanian’s promotion for president may lead to change of the governmental status quo.
There are so many layers in the government now that a change of configuration is possible even at the very last moment since the governmental resources are unstable and mobile.
Instead, it is perhaps certain that if the PAP nominates Vartan Oskanian for president, the status quo will change and some oppositional line will appear in the field and so Prosperous Armenia will be the main opposition.
The system will close down taking the modernization prospect into a closed circle, marginalizing the other forces of the political field and leaving the society the role of the observer, maybe active observer.
The society needs to choose between the status and formation of the new political and civil system, if there is wish to take the modernization prospect out of the closed cycle.