The membership of the ministers of finance and justice to the Republican Party is the so-called second offensive of Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan on the Republican Party. First, Tigran Davtyan, Nerses Yeritsyan, Davit Sargsyan of the prime minister’s team joined this party. Now Vache Gabrielyan and Hrair Tovmasyan join Tigran Sargsyan’s wing of the Republican Party.
Tigran Sargsyan’s influence on the Republican Party is growing. Or maybe it is his role rather than influence. After all, a growing role does not mean a growing influence. The question is whether this role is an expression of the objective course of developments, and whether this role is only part of Serzh Sargsyan’ political plan, even though an important part.
Interestingly, despite sheer criticism of the economic policy coming from all sides, including the Republican’s partner, the Prosperous Armenia Party, Serzh Sargsyan never questioned the effectiveness of this policy, never ever criticized or even commented on it.
In addition, Sargsyan torpedoed the ambitions of Hovik Abrahamyan and the ex-chief of his staff Karen Karapetyan to the post of the prime minister and cramped the fury of the oligarchs at the prime minister. Although, Sargsyan could not address one of the essential issues for the prime minister – the replacement of the head of the State Revenue Committee Gagik Khachatryan.
But it is possible that keeping the head of the SRC was Sargsyan’s compromise to soothe the fury of the oligarchs.
What does Tigran Sargsyan give Serzh Sargsyan in return? Why does Serzh Sargsyan keep Tigran Sargsyan if he could, for instance, replace him on the eve of the elections to relieve social dissatisfaction and shift responsibility on him, as well as try to win over votes for the Republicans? Or will Serzh Sargsyan need Tigran Sargsyan for that purpose before the presidential election 2013 when the scope of political competition narrows, dynamics and tension grow, and this trick will be more useful later than now.
Or maybe Serzh Sargsyan needs Tigran Sargsyan as an intellectual, civilized and modern veil for the government. After all, Tigran Sargsyan wasted this status a long time ago, and people expect tangible result rather than image to improve their life now and not some time in future. With ministers of the prime minister’s team joining the Republicans in turn means that Serzh Sargsyan does not intend to rid of Tigran Sargsyan soon. Otherwise, why should he make a team for him insite the Republican Party?
Or maybe Serzh Sargsyan cannot rid of Tigran Sargsyan rapidly. And the reason is not the intellectual diversion for public dissatisfaction.
Interestingly, addressing the 13th Congress of the Republican Party the president of the EPP Wilfred Martens linked the success of Armenia with Serzh Sargsyan and Tigran Sargsyan.
Mentioning Tigran Sargsyan’s name beside Serzh Sargsyan’s name is an interesting circumstance, and its importance is not secondary in the government and the growing role of Tigran Sargsyan in the Republican Party. In this context, it may already be a matter of influence.
In addition, it should not be ruled out that Tigran Sargsyan is Serzh Sargsyan’s key to international legitimacy, acceptability, confidence rather than the Armenian and Turkish diplomacy.
Perhaps this is the reason that unlike the Armenian and Turkish diplomacy Serzh Sargsyan cannot rid of Tigran Sargsyan’s economic policy, even when he found himself in an awkward situation when the ex-prime minister Hrant Bagratyan analyzed the economic facts which he had incorporated in his remarks to the 13th Congress of the Republicans.
On the other hand, it is a paradox of the economic policy. With the vicious political system in Armenia it is difficult to make a real and objective evaluation of the current economic policy. It is difficult to evaluate the benefit of the decisions and legislation with such poor enforcement, high level of fusion of business and government, privileges of the oligarchy.
No doubt these solutions are already up to Serzh Sargsyan rather than Tigran Sargsyan, hence Serzh Sargsyan is responsible for the deficiency or uncertainty of the economic policy. Not because he is the leader of the ruling party but because he must have a political will to establish constitutional government.
In this sense, Serzh Sargsyan may try to boost the role and influence of Tigran Sargsyan in the Republican Party.
However, experience shows that now the members of Tigran Sargsyan’s team fall under the influence rather than their influence spreads in the Republican Party.
As a result, the reputation of these new officials is damaged, being identified with the present image of the Republicans. Although it is possible that Tigran Sargsyan acts as a Troyan horse. After all, The Republican Party rose in one night, when in 1998 the parliamentary majority defected in a February night. And a party that rose in one night will fall in one night.